Give-and-take all round

At home and internationally, the pace of change in Myanmar continues to startle. On November 18th the National League for Democracy (NLD), the main opposition group, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, decided to rejoin the political process. At the same time the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), during its annual summit in Bali, agreed to Myanmar’s request to take on the group’s annual chairmanship in 2014.

That carries with it the responsibility of playing host to the East Asian Summit, to which the American president is invited. Barack Obama has signalled that America, too, is prepared to give Myanmar a chance, and much sooner than 2014.

He announced on November 18th that Hillary Clinton, his secretary of state, will next month pay the country its first such visit in more than half a century. Plaudits all around then, from the international community.

But Miss Suu Kyi’s concession is the most remarkable. She herself is set to contest by-elections, which due to be held soon. This will mark yet another watershed.

Having a genuinely popular figure in parliament—not to mention the country’s most popular figure—would introduce a new and unfathomable element to Burmese politics.

Till now the NLD had refused to register as a party under a constitution that the former junta foisted on Myanmar in a rigged referendum in 2008. It boycotted the election last year which installed a “civilian” government (dominated by former soldiers) to replace the junta. It describes its change of heart as a response to amendments in the electoral law. These lift a political ban on former prisoners, such as Miss Suu Kyi and most of her colleagues, remove a requirement that parties must have contested at least three seats in the general election, and modify language about the need to “safeguard the constitution”.

They do not, however, amend the constitution itself. Since this is what gives the army the official right to intervene in politics, and ensures that its representatives in parliament can block any change to the constitution, the NLD has regarded it as wholly unacceptable.

Some dissidents within the democracy movement will continue to oppose its acceptance. Others will ask why the NLD did not make the concession earlier (eg, members of the breakaway group that contested last year’s election).

And many have reservations about entering mainstream politics when so many dissidents remain behind bars, and when the army is still battling ethnic insurgencies around Myanmar’s borders, most notably in Kachin state.

Miss Suu Kyi’s decision seems to be based on the personal rapport she struck with Thein Sein, Myanmar’s president, after the two met in August.

It is part of a careful game of give-and-take, in which the promise to release 521 political prisoners (of an estimated 2,000) represents a large part of the government’s side of the bargain. So far, some 200 have been freed, in an amnesty granted at a Buddhist festival in October.

Those releases, serving as a symbol of the regime’s willingness to reform, also played a part in ASEAN’s decision to give Myanmar the chairmanship—the diplomatic prize it cherished above all others.

As ASEAN reached its decision, Myanmar’s government was reported to have started moving two high-profile political prisoners from remote parts of the country to Insein prison, in Yangon, to be nearer to their families.

One is Min Ko Naing, of the so-called “88” group, named for the mass uprising in 1988, in which he was a student leader. He is also alleged to have been a mastermind behind monk-led protests in 2007, the “saffron revolution”. Now he is serving a 65-year sentence. The other is Gambira, of the All Burma Monks Association, who led the peaceful protest. He was given a 68-year sentence, including 12 years of hard labour, and is said to have become gravely ill since undergoing severe physical and mental torture in prison.

More prisoners are expected to be moved in the coming days, but it is not clear if any will be released soon, despite expectations that many would be freed in advance of this week’s ASEAN meeting.

The possibility of a general amnesty for Myanmar’s political prisoners is complicated by the fact that they include a group who were once part of the junta’s military-intelligence apparatus.

They were detained in 2004 when their boss, a former prime minister and security chief, General Kyin Nyunt, was placed under house arrest. No one expects them to be freed anytime soon.

“The government is playing a game of checkers,” according to Zarganar, a famous comedian, critic of the government, and the best-known of the prisoners freed last month.

He wants to secure the release of all the political prisoners. Zarganar calls them hostages; as he has it, the ransom demanded for their release is the international community’s acceptance of Myanmar’s government. With the ASEAN chairmanship confirmed, and Mrs Clinton turning up on its doorstep, surely the down payment has been made.

Dalai Lama questions wisdom of self-immolations

The Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, says he is very worried about the growing number of monks and nuns setting themselves on fire to protest against Chinese rule in Tibet.

He told the BBC he was not encouraging such actions - saying there was no doubt they required courage, but questioning how effective they were.

There have been 11 cases of self-immolation so far this year.

Most have resulted in death - the latest a 35-year-old nun two weeks ago.

The BBC has obtained graphic footage of the moment she set herself alight, prompting horrified cries from onlookers. Later, Chinese security forces flooded the area.

The shocking video footage was smuggled across the border to India and shown to the BBC.

Tibetan monks and nuns are using self-immolation as the latest tactic in their struggle against 60 years of Chinese rule, says the BBC’s Andrew North.

But it is a sensitive issue for the man they are dying for - the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader.

‘How much effect?’

In an interview with our correspondent, he said he was not encouraging his followers to sacrifice themselves - as alleged by China.

“The question is how much effect” the self-immolations have, the Dalai Lama said.

“That’s the question. There is courage - very strong courage. But how much effect?

“Courage alone is no substitute. You must utilise your wisdom.”

Asked whether he feared the actions could make life worse for people in Tibet, he said: “Many Tibetans sacrifice their lives.

“Nobody knows how many people killed and tortured - I mean death through torture. Nobody knows.

“But a lot of people suffer. But how much effect? The Chinese respond harder.”

China has condemned the self-immolation campaign as immoral and inhuman, saying it will never succeed.

The growing number of monks and nuns prepared to set themselves on fire is a sign of increasing desperation in Tibet, our correspondent says.

They know while the West has backed the Arab Spring, with China it talks with a much quieter voice, he says. That leaves Tibetans with few options to shine a light on their struggle.

From inside Tibet, the word is that more monks are preparing to make the ultimate sacrifice, our correspondent adds.