Angela the lawgiver

Angela Markel’s attempt to impose fiscal law in the Euro-zone suggests, among other things, that the Euro-zone crisis is far from being over. It has been predicted that the present crisis would be worsen if the weaker economies would not be able to achieve stable status soon.

It took just a little more than 40 days and 40 nights for Angela Merkel to bring down the tablets of fiscal law. At a summit in Brussels this week, 25 European leaders pledged to observe this covenant and made burnt offerings of their economic sovereignty. But the children of Europe are crying into the wilderness: “How long, Lord, must we be tormented by austerity?”

Merkel holds out the prophecy of a political union. For the time being, though, and for years to come, deficit cutting is the only path to righteousness, she says. Look at Italy and Spain: markets relented once they started reform in earnest. Look at Greece, the doubters retort: EU-induced budget cuts are pushing it into recession and insurrection, and closer to chaotic default. And Portugal is testing the notion that Greece is alone.

Some see hope in things that Merkel has not yet done. She did not block a debate, due in March, on enlarging the euro’s rescue fund. She did not demand the return of unused EU money, instead allowing it to be redirected to projects to boost growth and jobs. And she did not strike down the European Central Bank for creating a torrent of liquidity for banks (see article). Still, the promised land of Eurobonds, and of the ECB lending to sovereigns, seems beyond the reach of today’s politicians.

In the third year of Europe’s debt crisis, leaders are under pressure from three sides: the bond markets, which threaten to push countries into insolvency; EU institutions, armed with new powers to monitor budgets and economic policies; and fellow leaders, who are no longer shy about meddling in neighbours’ affairs.

This combination is almost impossible to resist. It took only a smirk between Merkel and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, to doom Italy’s prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi. The Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, was also replaced under pressure from “Merkozy”. The new Belgian government, led by Elio Di Rupo, a Socialist, was forced to cut cherished social programmes under threat of EU sanctions (a general strike forced leaders to fly in to this week’s summit via a military airport).

What about citizens? They are being given little say in the loss of national prerogatives. Surely democratic politics is nothing if not about how wealth is created and distributed. Yet the treaty was drafted to avoid referendums, above all in Ireland (although that may be tested by the courts). Even if it is put to a vote, it will come into force when 12 of the euro zone’s 17 approve it. Countries that do not ratify will not receive new bail-outs from 2013.

Despite riots in Greece, and protests elsewhere, the fear of economic meltdown is still a brake on popular dissent. “In periods of recession you can ask people to make more sacrifices than in good times,” argues a senior Brussels official. The technocrats in Rome and Athens still rely on the support of elected parties. Most other EU governments are run by centre-right parties that tend to believe in budget consolidation.

But such consensus is fragile, and could soon be tested. Greece may hold elections in April that would probably be won by Antonis Samaras, leader of the conservative opposition party, New Democracy. He infuriates European leaders by only partly backing the international reform programme. Will the euro zone allow Greece to default if he resists its diktats? In France François Hollande, the Socialist who polls suggest will win the presidency in May, wants to renegotiate the fiscal pact. Should he refuse to adopt a balanced-budget rule it is hard to imagine Mrs Merkel taking him to court.

Such pressures may explain Germany’s heavy hand. Merkel’s decision to campaign for Sarkozy’s re-election looks ill-judged. A German official’s call for a “budget commissioner” with veto rights over Greek spending prompted accusations that Germany was trying to appoint a “G auleiter”. Mrs Merkel disavowed the idea, but her plans for stronger “monitoring” may not be very different. All this feeds anti-German feeling. Some suggest elected national governments are being crushed by an undemocratic Europe. That is facile. For several countries, the EU is a guarantee of democracy. Many would rather surrender sovereignty to a Europe, where they have influence, than to financial speculators. And in a monetary union, members surely have a right to speak up if others act recklessly. In the end, countries choose whether to join the EU, or even the euro.

Syria: UN Security Council ‘to vote on resolution’

The UN Security Council is expected to vote later on Saturday on a resolution backing an Arab League peace plan for Syria, amid reports of more than 200 people killed by shelling in Homs.

The draft resolution calls on President Bashar al-Assad to hand power to a deputy to oversee a transition. Russia has objected to earlier versions of the text and it is not clear how it will vote, or if it will abstain. Meanwhile, Syrian activists described violence in Homs as “a real massacre”.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Syrian forces were firing mortars into the district of Khalidiyya and some buildings were set on fire. It said women and children were among the dead.

Rami Abdulrahman, head of the observatory, called for the “immediate intervention” of the Arab League to end the violence.

The reports cannot be independently verified. However, footage broadcast on the Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya TV channels showed dozens of bodies on the ground. The BBC’s UN correspondent Barbara Plett says momentum for the vote has been building in recent days. Russia - Syria’s strongest ally on the council - has objected to parts of the latest draft but did not put forward any revisions, so a vote was called for 09:00 EST (14:00 GMT) on Saturday. Moscow has previously vetoed UN resolutions on Syria but there is a feeling now that things could be different, our correspondent adds. The UN Security Council has been engaged in intense negotiations over the resolution

On Thursday, Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told diplomats he would veto the resolution if it were put to a vote on Friday in its current form. It is believed Moscow objects to the phrase which says the council “fully supports” the Arab League plan. On Friday, the Russian Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov as saying that the draft was “not enough for us to be able to support it in this form”.

However, by Friday evening the Russian delegation had not presented any new wording, diplomats said. Moscow has continued to supply weapons to Syria despite the uprising there.

Syria has been gripped by nationwide protests against President Assad’s regime for almost a year. The UN stopped estimating the death toll after it passed 5,400 in January, saying it was too difficult to confirm numbers.