US economy contracts in Q1
The US economy shifted into reverse in the first three months of 2014
shrinking by an annualised rate of 1%, official estimates have shown. It
is the worst economic performance since the first quarter of 2011.
It is also a big fall on the 2.6% rise in economic output in the
final quarter of last year. The US Commerce Department's first reading
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualised
rate of just 0.1%.
The fall in output was blamed on an unusually cold and disruptive
winter - one of the coldest in the US for 20 years - and a plunge in
business investment.
Nobody thinks the US economy is slipping back into recession. Still
it's a nasty reminder that instead of robust growth America's recovery
is just ticking along.Given the slow return to health, the recovery in
American corporate profits since the financial crisis has been all the
more remarkable. But has it finally peaked? This release shows corporate
profits fell 9.8% (non annualised) in the first three months of the
year. There are plenty of reasons why they were squeezed, including the
weather but it still bears watching. Economists estimate the weather
could have cost up to 1.5 percentage points of GDP.
However, the Commerce's Department's report did not estimate the
effect of the winter weather. The fall was also twice as big as
economists expected.
Most Wall Street analysts had forecast the economy to contract by
around 0.5%.
But the Commerce Department said there was already evidence that the
economy was rebounding, with data ranging from employment to
manufacturing activity already pointing to a sharp acceleration in
economic activity in the second quarter.
Tumbling exports, while not as severe as initially thought, combined
with stronger imports in the first quarter resulted in a larger than
expected trade deficit which shaved 0.95 percentage points off US
economic output.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US
economic activity, increased by 3.1%, which was revised up slightly from
3% in the first estimate.
Port of Los Angeles America's trade deficit also worsened in the
first quarter as imports rose.
Business spending on non-residential structures, such as gas
drilling, fell by 7.5%. It had previously been reported to have
increased by 0.2% .
The report showed corporate pre-tax profits also plunged 13.7% in the
first quarter, the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2008.
- BBC
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