Sunday Politics with Rasika Jayakody

Power moves towards dissolution

It was on Friday afternoon that President Maithripala Sirisena signed the much awaited gazette notification with regard to dissolution of Parliament, ending weeks of speculation. By order of the President, the gazette was issued by Secretary to the President, P.B. Abeykoon,. Shortly after signing, the gazette was sent to the Government Printer for immediate issuance.

The gazette notification, however, was unusual for one reason. In addition to dissolution of Parliament, it also referred to the period of nomination, the exact date of the Parliamentary election and the date to convene the new Parliament. The gazette said,

“a) Dissolve Parliament, with effect from midnight today and summon the new Parliament to meet on the first day of September, two thousand and fifteen.

b) Fix the seventeenth day of August, two thousand and fifteen as the date for the election of Members of Parliament:

c) Specify the period beginning from the sixth day of July two thousand and fifteen and ending at twelve noon on the thirteenth day of July two thousand fifteen as the nomination period during which nomination papers shall be received by the returning officers”

While the United National Party was eagerly waiting for the dissolution of Parliament, the SLFP group supporting President Maithripala Sirisena and the Jathika Hela Urumaya attempted their best to delay it, citing the importance of passing the 20th Amendment. Lengthy negotiations took place between President Maithripala Sirisena and his non-UNP supporters such as

Rajitha Senaratne and Patali Champika Ranawaka on dissolution and the passage of the 20th Amendment in Parliament.

SLFP-JHU for postponement

The SLFP group supporting President Sirisena and the JHU pushed for the postponement of dissolution not because it had any love for the 20th Amendment, but mainly due to their own political agendas. The SLFP realised that it was playing on a bad wicket due to the political campaign led by former President Rajapaksa.

The party required more time to mitigate the negative impact created by the pro-Rajapaksa group on the traditional SLFP. The party also wanted to explore the possibility of a settlement with the pro-Rajapaksa group. The 20th Amendment dealing with electoral reforms provided the perfect platform for this time-buying exercise.

But civil society groups, which were instrumental in the election victory of President Maithripala Sirisena, also felt that Parliament should be dissolved with immediate effect. A group of civil society leaders met President Maithripala Sirisena on Wednesday, at his private residence in Colombo, to discuss the dissolution of Parliament.

The delegation included Ven. Maduluwawe Sobhitha Thera, senior lawyer J.C. Weliamuna, Prof. Sarath Wijesuriya and Dr. Nirmal Ranjitha Dewasiri.

The civil society representatives stressed the need to dissolve Parliament as there was political instability in the country. They said political parties had expressed conflicting views on the 20th Amendment and the whole process had turned out to be a time-wasting effort.

Ven. Sobhitha Thera, Convenor of the National Movement for a Just Society, pointed out that Parliament should be dissolved immediately if there was no agreement among political parties on the 20th Amendment. The President agreed.

When the SLFP (Maithripala group) realised that they could not hold on to the 20th Amendment anymore, they expedited their moves to arrive at an “interim settlement” with the pro-Rajapaksa camp. It was as part of this plan that Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne met former Economic Development Minister Basil Rajapaksa at a private hospital in Colombo where the latter was undergoing treatment. Senaratne was accompanied by Deputy Minister Lasantha Alagiyawanna, another stalwart of the SLFP group supporting President Sirisena. The discussion lasted for nearly two and a half hours and they discussed about the present political situation and the SLFP’s future. Apart from their roles in the country’s political domain, Senaratne and Rajapaksa were school friends who studied together at Ananda College, Colombo.

Basil meets MR

A few days later, on June 25, after being discharged from hospital, Basil Rajapaksa met his sibling Mahinda at the latter’s residence in Mirihana to discuss their future political plans. A day after this meeting Senaratne too met the former President, his main political rival just a few months ago. The meeting took place a week after Senaratne’s son, Chathura, challenged the former President to defeat him at Beliatta.

However, when asked about this meeting, Senaratne told reporters that he only met Rajapaksa to discuss about his health and other general matters. But, Senaratne’s tone and facial expressions indicated that the discussion focused more on Rajapaksa’s ‘political health’ than on physical health!

After the meeting with Senaratne, Rajapaksa also met another group of SLFP MPs who were members of the committee to promote ‘cooperation” between the former President and the incumbent President. All six members of the committee were present at the discussion with the former President.

At the meeting, the committee members strongly urged Rajapaksa to desist from contesting any other political party, causing a split in the SLFP.Rajapaksa said he did not want to split the SLFP as he worked with the party for nearly 47 years.

However, the former President said he was not happy about the present state of affairs in the party.The MPs emphasized the need for a one-on-one meeting between President Sirisena and former President Rajapaksa. Even staunch ‘Maithripala supporters’ including Dr. Rajitha Senaratne, were of the same view. It was against this backdrop that the news about a meeting between President Sirisena and former President Rajapaksa went viral in the media on Friday. According to media reports, the meeting had been held at the Speaker’s residence.

On Thursday night, Western Province Chief Minister Prasanna Ranatunga hosted a dinner for pro-Rajapaksa MPs and Provincial Councillors at his official residence. The chief guest of the dinner was former President Rajapaksa and a ‘head table’ was arranged for him. At 9 o clock at night, Rajapaksa left the Western Province Chief Minister’s residence, saying he had a meeting with President Sirisena.

The MPs were informed that Rajapaksa would come back to the Chief Minister’s house after the meeting.

Rajapaksa returned to Prasanna Ranatunga’s house after one and a half hours. MPs supporting him were waiting eagerly to know the outcome of the closed door discussion. They were told that the matter was back to square one with President Sirisena requesting former President Rajapaksa to desist from contesting the forthcoming election. The MPs were informed that the former President had turned down the request saying he had received many requests from his supporters to contest the election.

“We were also told that they discussed a common candidates’ list. Under that proposal, MPs supporting the former President will also receive nomination to contest the election without any obstacle. But, President Sirisena had categorically insisted that the former President should not be a candidate,” a Parliamentarian, who is also a stalwart of the Rajapaksa camp, told the Sunday Observer on Friday. Soon after media reports, there was a statement from the President’s Media Unit denying reports about a meeting at the Speaker’s House. It was a qualified denial as the statement specifically said there was no meeting held at the Speaker’s residence. Shortly after this statement, Rajapaksa’s media coordinator Rohana Welivita too issued a statement saying there was no meeting at the Speaker’s residence. Both statements left enough room to speculate that the meeting was held somewhere else!

Sources in the Rajapaksa camp indicated that the meeting was actually held in a private house at Galwala road, Mirihana. The former President’s nephew (sister’s son) Himal Hettiarachchi’s house is also located at Galwala road, Mirihana. Rajapaksa’s private residence too is not too far away from Galwala road.

Several SLFP seniors to cross

With the announcement of the election, political observers are watching developments in the SLFP as a sizable proportion of its MPs have aligned themselves with the pro-Rajapaksa campaign. A group of senior MPs who did not want to be seen in public with the Rajapaksa camp before the dissolution of Parliament, may now be waiting until the last moment to make their move.

Among them are UPFA General Secretary Susil Premajayantha, John Seneviratne and SLFP General Secretary Anura Priyadarshana Yapa. Premajayantha, told a group meeting two weeks ago, that he would share the same stage with former President Rajapaksa. He was indicating that he would join Rajapaksa’s camp when the former President made his candidature official.

As President Sirisena is not willing to leave any room for Rajapaksa in the SLFP list, the former President’s group may have no option but to contest separately.

If Premajayantha and Yapa decide to join the Rajapaksa camp at this point, it will plunge the SLFP and the UPFA into a serious crisis ahead of a crucial Parliamentary election. It will either compel President Sirisena to accommodate Rajapaksa in the SLFP list or to remove the two General Secretaries from their positions.

Political analysts say the best option, at the moment, for President Sirisena is to take stringent action against Rajapaksa supporters and to cleanse the party.

President Sirisena has already has an agreement with the UNP to work together for at least two years within the framework of a national unity government. So, ministerial portfolios for Sirisena supporters are guaranteed in a future government, irrespective of the final outcome of the Parliamentary election. Contesting under a separate political front is no easy task for the former President.

It was revealed after the last Parliamentary election that Rajapaksa had spent Rs. 43,000 per every single vote he received. In spite of a such a lavish campaign, Rajapaksa lost the Presidential election by over 400,000 votes. At the Parliamentary election, however, he will not have the same resources and human capital. At the same time, his spending patterns will be under close scrutiny as stalwarts in his camp face serious bribery allegations.

Rajapaksa has projected his political campaign as an ultra-nationalist movement targeting the Sinhala-Buddhist community which amounts to nearly 69 percent of the country’s total voter base. If the former President is serious about becoming the next Prime Minister of the country, he has to secure an overwhelming majority from at least six provinces containing this vote bank. This is an almost impossible task especially just five months after a serious debacle at the Presidential election.

Bodu bala in the fray

The Bodu Bala Sena, which was supportive of Rajapaksa at the last presidential election, now hints that it is planning to contest the Parliamentary election as a separate entity. The BBS, if it contests, will draw at least 8 percent of votes out of Rajapaksa’s group as both parties operate in the same vote bank territory.

The JHU too has not taken a final decision on its election strategy. However, the party is more likely to contest under the umbrella of the UPFA, led by President Sirisena. The JHU will be in a moral dilemma if Rajapaksa too contests through the UPFA. Champika Ranawaka and Athuraliye Rathana Thera were vociferous critiques of the Rajapaksa regime during the last Presidential election.

At this point, it looks as if the JHU is trying to keep its options open. Ranawaka told press briefing a few days ago, that former President Rajapaksa had good qualities as well as bad qualities. “We should not forget his good qualities while criticising his bad qualities,” the Minister said.

The dissolution of Parliament on Friday did not come as a surprise to the UNP. Two days before the dissolution, Education Minister

Akila Viraj Kariyawasam and Minister P. Harrison gave a hint at a press conference at the UNP headquarters.

Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera gave an indication to reporters about dissolution when he said on Wednesday that dissolution was just “hours away”.

On Friday morning, all electorate organisers and Parliamentarians were summoned to Siri Kotha by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to discuss the party’s election campaign. At the meeting, UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrama was appointed as the campaign manager of the party with a committee to steer its election campaign.

The committee members will collaborate with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in steering the UNP election campaign, highly placed party sources said. Karu Jayasuriya will function as a committee member as he would not contest the Parliamentary election.

Addressing the meeting, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told MPs and electorate organisers that Parliament would be dissolved very soon and the party should prepare for the election. It was a clear indication to the UNP electorate organisers that dissolution was imminent and the election time had arrived.

The Prime Minister also added that house-to-house campaigns should be launched in all parts of the country ahead of the Parliamentary election.

The meeting showed that the UNP, the main stakeholder of the present government, has consolidated its position as the front-runner of the Parliamentary election while the SLFP is going through what the UNP went through over the past 20 years.