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Doubts hang over release of Suu Kyi in Myanmar

YANGON, May 4 (Reuters) Expectations that the world's most famous political prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, is about to be freed from 19 months house arrest in Myanmar have become clouded by growing doubts among pro-democracy opposition activists.

Myanmar has been abuzz all week with feverish speculation that the 56-year-old Nobel peace laureate was about to be released after striking a deal with the ruling junta in a breakthrough after years of political stalemate. Senior leaders of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) say she told them this week she expected to be released within days following secret meetings with the ruling junta.

But the military government has been silent on the expected release and Suu Kyi's home on University Avenue in Yangon was still blocked off on Saturday by barricades and a "No Entry" sign.

Every day, scores of opposition activists have crammed into the dilapidated headquarters of the NLD waiting for word. So far, they have heard nothing. Political sources said no developments were expected at the weekend and Suu Kyi's release would not happen before Monday at the earliest. They said the deal appeared to have been held up by haggling over whether her release would be unconditional. Suu Kyi spent a previous spell in house arrest from 1989 to 1995 and her release then was marked with jubilant scenes as large crowds thronged the street outside her residence.

Diplomats say the junta wants to avoid a repeat, and has been trying to reach agreement with Suu Kyi that she will keep a low profile after her release. They said this may be a sticking point in the talks to secure her freedom. "The military regime is very reluctant for an unconditional release," Sann Aung, a minister in a shadow government set up by exiled opposition politicians, told Reuters in Bangkok. "They're still bargaining."

The release of Suu Kyi is among the top demands of the international community, which has isolated Myanmar and imposed economic sanctions on the impoverished country in a bid to force political change.

The United States said this week it would welcome freedom for Suu Kyi but told the junta her release must be unconditional and would not automatically lead to a lifting of sanctions. The NLD has also said it wants her to be released with no restrictions on her movement.

The NLD won Myanmar's last democratic elections in 1990 by a landslide, but the junta refused to hand over power. The military has ruled the country, formerly known as Burma, since 1962.

The ruling generals began secretive talks with Suu Kyi in October 2000, saying they wanted to find common ground to break the political stalemate. But so far the talks have yielded no concrete results and patience is wearing thin.

Political sources say the military has been trying to strike a deal with Suu Kyi under which she would call for an easing of sanctions and co-operate with the government in some humanitarian fields like education and health.

State media said on Friday the trial had begun of four relatives of elderly former dictator Ne Win who were arrested in March and accused of planning a coup. The four - a son-in-law and three grandsons of Ne Win - face the death penalty if found guilty.

The government says they had plotted to overthrow the government in league with a group of military officers and an expert in black magic hired to provide astrological advice. Like his old enemy Suu Kyi, Ne Win is now being held in house arrest. But while Suu Kyi may soon be freed, Ne Win is expected to stay in detention for the rest of his life.

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