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Sixth Sense : 

Economic strategy for interim peace

by Raj Gonsalkorale

Are Sri Lanka's stars suddenly on the ascendant? First the LTTE moves closer to the centre by announcing concessions that even optimists within the government did not expect, and then the President announces that she has received soundings from the UNF for a National government and she indicates that her price is not all that high: stop harassment of PA supporters and come clean with all details relating to discussions with the LTTE, including any concessions/deals entered into with them.



Credit has to be given both to the Government and the LTTE for keeping the momentum going.

Following this, and in spite of a Prime Ministerial boycott of her eighth anniversary celebrations as President, Chandrika Kumaratunga sounded Presidential, conciliatory, not only towards the UNF but towards the LTTE as well, and proposed several commendable initiatives to assist the reconciliation process.

All this however sounds too good to be true, and we are to ask ourselves whether we aredreaming or being foolish, or whether we are being taken for fools! Undeniably, if what we hear and made to believe are true, genuinely so, then our stars are on the ascendant and augurs very well for the future. Sadly, politicians are not noted for being truthful, and their credibility, at the best of times, is probably less than that of the fox who offered to look after the chicken coop. They should not therefore take umbrage if the ordinary citizens of the country smirk with scepticism and wait for real and long-lasting action before they start believing what they hear and see.

Undoubtedly, the progress made at the peace talks held in Thailand from all accounts is encouraging and if the current momentum is maintained throughout future talks, it augurs very well for the future. Credit has to be given both to the Government and the LTTE for keeping this momentum going without being side tracked by related as well as unrelated issues.

The pivotal role played by the Prime Minister, who has provided the drive and leadership, and the President who has supported the process despite many cohabitation wrangling with the government, has to be recognised, and both given credit for maintaining this momentum. It is certainly no easy task to forget more than twenty years of murder and mayhem, thousands of deaths of innocent civilians and the deaths of political leaders, a President, a Prime Minister of another country, and the near death of another President, and then discuss peace as if the bloody past was an indispensable path to get where we are now. It is not easy to ask those who went through such terror to erase their memories and pretend it never happened.

The fact that the Prime Minister and the President, who nearly met with her death at the hands of the LTTE, have risen above very understandable feelings of anger, frustration and possibly hatred, speaks volumes for their capacity to lead and forge a future for the entire country.

The peace process is still in its infancy and it would be unwise to assume we are out of danger and on a completely irreversible path towards a negotiated solution. Signs are good though that the process is moving forward and both sides have approached discussions in a very conciliatory manner and with an encouraging degree of optimism, mindful of the responsibility that rests with both parties to make appropriate concessions to maintain the peace momentum. What is important is to keep this momentum and move towards a situation that provides a lasting solution, and not one that creates another problem.

Many have argued that the LTTE has been driven to accept the position that war and terror have not achieved their desired political outcomes not out of conviction but due to circumstances beyond their control and that they have not really accepted the position that discussion and negotiation are better tools than war and terror.

There are many who question the bona fides of the LTTE. Events of September 11th 2001 and the anti terrorist environment that followed, including the impact on fund collection for the continuation of terrorism, have been given as the primary reasons for the LTTE change of heart.

This might be the case, but one has to ask the question what matters more, i.e. the reasons for the LTTE change of heart or the direction they wish to take from this point of time. It is hard to argue that these two questions are mutually exclusive although what is important for the LTTE, the Sri Lankan government and all the citizens of the country is the future direction the LTTE wishes to take in regard to their ultimate objective.

If the LTTE change of heart was influenced by events of September 11th and the war on terrorism declared by President Bush, then today, that war has received a significant boost on account of the decisive congressional election victory scored by the Republican Party in the US, without doubt due to the huge popularity enjoyed by President Bush in the country.

This victory accentuates the anti terrorist climate throughout the world, and if the LTTE's hand were forced due to September 11th, then that hand would have been forced even further towards reconciliation with the Sri Lankan government consequent to President Bush's significant congressional victory.

The possible factors for a change of heart have now been directed towards the direction the LTTE wishes to take in regard to a negotiated settlement with the Sri Lankan government. One certainly wishes that this would be the case, although disturbing reports of stock piling weapons and ammunition by LTTE cadres in some areas in the North and East, as disclosed by the former Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, is of concern, and raises some questions on the tactics, and possibly on the real intentions of the LTTE, assuming of course that what they have demonstrated so far have not been their real intentions.

In all good faith though, the LTTE should be commended for making conciliatory gestures at the recently concluded second round of talks in Thailand. Whether they have been done in a genuine desire for a negotiated settlement, or as the President has claimed, due to the vulnerability of the UNF government consequent to the Supreme Court ruling on the 19th amendment and the instability of the SLMC, or whether it has been due to consolidation of the anti terrorist sentiment of the world community, it is a fact that at this point of time, the LTTE has moved a few notches away from its extremist views and towards the centre.

The question whether they will maintain a momentum to move away from previously held extremist views remains to be seen and will have some dependency on their reasons for change of heart as much as there is a dependency on what the Sri Lankan government is willing to offer for reconciliation. There is no doubt that peace will not be achieved by giving into extremist demands, whether they arise from the LTTE or Sinhala or Muslim extremists.

The LTTE needs to demonstrate they are moving towards the mainstream of Sri Lankan politics and the government needs to reciprocate by moving closer to recognising the need for forging a political environment where the uniqueness of different cultures, Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim in the main, are recognised and a new political order is created where all citizens could accept these differences but still live as equals in one Unitary State.

One possible way to derail these peace discussions would be to engage in protracted arguments on a political solution at this stage, without first making life comfortable and normal for the citizens of the North and East who have suffered enormously during twenty years of conflict. Happily, this has been recognised by the government and the LTTE and agreements reached after the second round of discussions validates this thinking.

It may be wise for all parties to this conflict to even indefinitely postpone a political settlement; that is, what is conventionally understood to be a political settlement.

It is perhaps more opportune to give priority to reconstruction and rebuilding within a framework of a Development Authority for the North and East, under the auspices of the State of Sri Lanka, with the participation of the government of the day, the LTTE, representatives of the Muslim community and other political parties. Political devolution in its traditional form could be replaced by special powers granted to the Development Authority for a limited period. Such an Authority would hopefully address some of the opposition to a political settlement and it would remove some contentious issues from the agenda.

Firstly, there will not be an argument on the Unitary State of the country as the Development Authority would be an instrument of the State created to rebuild the North and East. It would have the participation of the LTTE and others and they would enjoy special powers relating to development issues rather than political issues.

Such an Authority would also facilitate the integration of LTTE armed cadres into the Sri Lankan Police and Armed Forces over time, with the objective of ensuring that a majority of personnel for the Police and Armed Forces for the North and East are drawn from Tamil and Muslim communities, with due consideration given to an appropriate mix of Sinhala personnel in some parts of the Eastern province. It would also provide an opportunity to integrate the LTTE Courts with the Justice system in the rest of the country.

One has to be mindful that these integration activities cannot and will not happen at the stroke of a pen. It will happen when mutual trust has been established and those supporting the LTTE, as well as the Tamil community at large, reach the point where they would have developed the confidence to live as equals and in a secure environment with the Sinhalese, Muslims and other communities in any part of the country.

A debate on whether the LTTE demands and their vicious terror campaign and the de facto "State" they have virtually created in some parts of the North and East are justified, is largely academic now as the country has moved away from a war option to a peace option. An endless debate can be had, but it is not likely to produce any worthwhile outcomes other than prolonging the inevitability of a negotiated solution. In this context, the Reconciliation commission proposed by the President makes sense, as it could help in bridging gaps between the war that has ended and peace between communities that has still not been achieved.

As has been the thrust of the talks between the government and the LTTE so far, giving priority to an economic model rather than a political model may be the best option for the country. One can only wish that wiser counsel would prevail throughout these discussions.

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