Online edition of Sunday Observer

Was it a failure... a step backwards from the Kyoto Protocol, where five years ago, a vow of sorts was made at the third Conference of

Parties (CoP3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to combat atmospheric pollution, the main culprit of global warming and climate change? The environment friendly governments including the European Union felt it was so. As did the non-governmental organisations in the field.

At the eighth Conference of Parties (CoP8) to the UNFCCC, which was concluded in New Delhi, India, early this month, over 2000 delegates from 169 of the 186 countries who are party to the convention, discussed in detail and agreed upon the conditions proposed at Kyoto, Japan at the CoP3, in 1997. Sri Lanka sent a seven member delegation headed by Rukman Senanayake, Minister of Environment and Natural Resources to the CoP8.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the world body that converged to address climate change, defines it as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods."

A blanket of gasses and water vapour surrounding the earth, keeps 70% of the energy from the sun by absorbing and re-emitting infra radiation and keeps the earth 33 degrees centigrade warmer than what it should be.

If not for the blanket of these Green House Gasses (GHG), the earth would be a cold and desolate place, uninhabitable for humans. GHG include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, artificial chemicals called halocarbons (CFC, HFC, PFC) and some long living gasses such as sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Ideally, these gasses and water vapour consists less than 1% of the atmosphere.

However, human activities, mainly, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation has increased the percentage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A higher percentage of gasses in the blanket secures more energy from the sun and makes the earth warmer.

The past 100 years had seen a rise in the mean global temperature by 0.6 degrees centigrade resulting in a sea level rise of 10-20 centimetres. And already many changes are taking place. While Sri Lanka is experiencing the twin disasters of drought and landslides, on the other side of the world, US is ravaged by tornados.

This is only a taste of more sinister changes. According to the latest reports, from January to September 2002 a total of 526 significant natural disasters have wrecked the world. The highest of this is in Asia numbering 195, which had claimed over 8,000 lives. The estimated damage of these disasters during the period stands at a cost of US $ 56 billion.

However, there is no cutting down on the use of fossil fuel or deforestation or any other activity which contributes to increase in GHG in the atmosphere.

The climate models of the Third Analysis Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authoritative body on the subject, predicts that if no protective measures are taken, the global temperature will rise by a minimum of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees centigrade. "Even a 1.4 rise in temperature is much larger than any century time scale trend for the past 10,000 years" warn UNFCCC. A warming of "more than 2.5 degrees centigrade will cause catastrophic results".

The temperature rise would not only cause a change in regional rainfall patterns and shift climate and agricultural zones towards the poles contributing to a reduction of global food supplies, it would also see the melting of glaciers and the rising of sea water temperatures, which in turn will cause a rise of sea water levels by an average of 9 to 88 centimetres.

Furthermore, the rising temperatures will cause an increase in global precipitation and would increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

The importance of climate change was acknowledged in 1992, at the first Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro where UNFCCC was formed. The objective of the Convention on Climate Change was "to achieve, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change; to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner." With this objective in mind 5 years after the convention, a set of agreements were called upon at Kyoto, Japan.

The Kyoto Protocol set legally binding targets and timetables for cutting emissions of GHG which contributes to global warming, with national targets to each country. The developed or industrialised countries were given a target of a collective reduction of GHG emissions by at least 5% compared to 1990 levels in its first commitment period 2008-2012. It also promoted countries to adopt effective domestic policies and measure for reducing emissions such as phasing out counter productive subsidies, introducing energy-efficiency methods, establishing regulatory standards and promoting best current and future technologies.

Further, the Protocol proposed emission reducing mechanisms such as emission trading, joint implementation of emission reduction units and clean development. The Protocol was scheduled to enter into force 90 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 parties to the Convention, including developed countries accounting for at least 55% of the total 1990 emissions from the industrialized group.

The Kyoto Protocol thought not perfect, was viewed as an initial instrument to combat climate change. For five years, the world community argued on climate change mitigation mechanisms.

And this time, the focus of discussions was to be on the ratification of the Protocol; adequacy of commitment to the Protocol from different groups mainly the developed, developing and the least developed countries; and implementing of adaptation mechanisms proposed therein. But, did they manage to achieve what they were set for? Afraid not. The Delhi declaration, did neither strengthen any previous agreements entered into nor stipulated new conditions for the countries to abide by. The novelty ended after urging parties that have not already ratified the protocol, to do so 'in a timely manner' and recognising that adaptation to climate change is of high priority.

Why did CoP8 let the largest culprit of carbon dioxide emissions, the US, with 36.1% of the industrial world's emissions go scot free without ratifying the Kyoto Protocol? Why did they let the US object many a CoP8 decision? Why did CoP8 let US and Saudi Arabia not only oppose the proposed draft of the Delhi Declaration on the basis of 'definitions' but also cut it down to a proposal which does neither add anything new to the existing framework, nor strengthen it, making even the European Union, reject it as "watered down" and "disappointing". Why did the US argue that they would not ratify the Protocol on the basis that it does not stipulate commitments for developing countries, when the 1999 GHG emissions from 151 countries in the developing and least developed sectors from Africa, Asia, Middle East, South and Central America with a population of 2.6 billion, were needed to equal the GHG emissions of the US in 1999 with a population of 288 million? (Source: First in emissions: Behind in solutions by National Environment Trust -Washington DC, 2002). These are also pertinent questions to those of us in the developing world. The problem of climate change is by and large serious. The world has already started paying the price for neglecting the environment.

The catastrophes that are experienced now are caused due to global warming and resultant climate change.

And it is time that the developing nations stand up for the rights of the people in their respective countries. For it is the developing world and countries such as Sri Lanka, and the poorest of the poor who still depend on the environment to eke out a living; cultivators and fishermen, who are going to be worst affected by climate change.

It's already happening

It is already happening, here... in our own back yards. Unseasoned rains, unanticipated droughts and the accompanying misery of floods and famine. At present it is the rains that's causing havoc flooding highways and byways, causing land slides and washing away livelihoods. Once a blessing of nature eagerly awaited, it is now being viewed as something of an ill omen.

According to the Meteorology Department, there is nothing new or ominous about the onset of rains. Their argument is that, for Sri Lanka, situated in the inter tropical convergent zone, where air streams from the North and South merge, it is normal to expect rainy weather and cyclonic conditions during the months of October to December. However, the present situation, differs from the normal average rainfall. The Met Department stations have recorded more than average rainfall for the month of October, and they predict even more rain during the month of November.

Why are we getting more and more rain? The Met Department attributes it to El Nino conditions. "El Nino based climate variability in Sri Lanka is a good example of the climate change effects in the South Asian region" agrees Prof. Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chairperson, IPCC. "It makes the wet zone wetter and dry zone drier thereby increasing the water stress already faced by South Asian countries."

"Research conducted by Sri Lankan scientists have revealed that there is a drop in the rice yield and the rubber crop over the years due to climate change" says Dr. B.M.S. Batagoda, Director, Environment Economics and Global Affairs Division, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. He says that increase in temperature had also been noted in Nuwara Eliya, while over the last 3 to 4 decades, the mean surface air temperature had shown an increase of 0.16 degrees centigrade per decade.

"Sri Lanka is one of the worst affected nations by climate change" stated Rukman Senanayake, Minister of Environment and Natural Resources, in his message to CoP8, in Delhi. "Our corals are being bleached, coastal lands are being gradually submerged by the sea, agricultural crop yield is becoming more and more uncertain. Furthermore, extreme weather events, both flood and drought, have caused serious damage to life and property."

So, are we to keep our eyes and ears closed to the reality? Or are we to awake from our slumber and get into action, jumpstart our own battle against climate change. A nation with a tradition of living in harmony with nature, perhaps we can do it better, our own way !