India: A superpower in the making?
The rise of this growing nation will change the balance of power in
Asia-and potentially the world.
With nearly 1.1 billion inhabitants, India is the second largest
country on earth in population, and seventh largest in geographical
area, over 1.1 million square miles. This is almost 1,000 people for
every square mile of area nationwide-much denser than even China.
Since achieving independence from British rule in 1947, it has seen
its share of conflict, struggle and setbacks. Although India still faces
many challenges, it is now poised to reach a higher position on the
world scene than at any previous time.
The Indian economy has grown an average of around 6% annually over
the past decade and 8% per year over the past three years-among the
fastest rates in the world. It boasts an emerging middle class and
increasing gross domestic product, exports, employment and foreign
investment.
This is complemented by a roaring stock market (index value up by a
third in 2005 and by 200% since 2001), low external debt and large
foreign exchange reserves.
Recent visits from leaders and officials from the United States,
France, Germany and Russia have spotlighted India's rise. These
wealthier nations see India as a trading partner with enormous
potential.
Although it has not yet matched the financial performance of
China-currently the fastest-growing economy in the world-according to
some analysts, India shows even more long-term potential for rapid
growth. Leaders from both nations have discussed the creation of a
Chinese-Indian common market based on the European Union model.
Although only an idea at present, if realized, it would be the
largest economic system in the world, home for about 2.5 billion
consumers-almost 40% of the human race (or 3 of every 8 people on
earth)! There are gleaming, glass-paned high-tech towers, condominium
blocks, multiplexes, and shopping malls, where Indians dine at Ruby
Tuesday, browse for Samsung electronics, or kick the tires at a Toyota,
Ford, or Chevy dealer.
If one overlooks the dusty pockets of poverty nearby, a few water
buffaloes picking at garbage near shantytowns, the look is more Southern
California office park than the India of yore" (U.S. News and World
Report). Despite the problems seen in India's underdeveloped
countryside-for example, massive unmet infrastructure needs; more
illiterate citizens than any other single nation-there are several areas
in which the nation excels.
These particular specialized talents have allowed a tiny percentage
of the populace-perhaps less than 1%-to spearhead its move toward a
higher standing in the world order.
Intellectual Capital
India's economy is divided between agriculture (which accounts for a
quarter of the gross national product), manufacturing (constituting
another quarter) and the high-tech service sector, which now makes up
fully half of the gross national product. Striving to become a
"knowledge superpower," it hopes to skip the intermediate step of
industrial development that has preceded other nations' march into the
Information Age. Scientific and information technology companies from
around the world are opening research and development labs in India-more
than 100 in the past five years. One mainstay of the new economy is
software development, with ever more global firms outsourcing to India
the time-intensive work of programming.
Businesses worldwide also rely on the country for customer
service-phone calls from around the world are directed to call centers
in Indian cities such as Bangalore. Other developing markets include
pharmaceutical and biotechnology research. Currently, the majority of
top American companies send some of their IT work to India, and there is
little evidence of a slowdown in this trend. The business world is also
looking in India's direction. Graduates of the nation's business
programs are in high demand among multinational corporations, with each
graduating class commanding a higher average salary than the one before.
Those who complete MBA degrees at schools such as the Indian Institute
of Management can now expect starting salaries ranging from $75,000 (USD)
at Indian firms to over $200,000 outside the country. This is comparable
to graduates of top American business schools such as Harvard, Stanford
and Dartmouth-testimony to the market value of Indian talent in this
area of study.
Military Buildup
As its clout has grown, India has placed a high priority on improving
its military capabilities as well.
New Delhi has not joined 187 other nations in signing the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), and appeared on the world's radar screen
as a nuclear-armed nation in May 1998, with the detonation of five
warheads in the desert near the border of Pakistan. This disturbed many
governments around the globe, naturally including that of Pakistan,
which responded with nuclear tests of its own.
This stand-off was the turning point that began India's pursuit of a
full-fledged nuclear weapons program. According to The Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists, additional nuclear missile tests occurred in the
summer of 2004; since then, the Indian Defense Ministry has earmarked $2
billion annually to build 300 to 400 weapons over the next 5 to 7 years.
India maintains a "no first strike" nuclear policy, and asserts that it
only seeks enough nuclear weaponry to effectively deter aggressors. U.S.
President George W. Bush, during a March 2006 visit with Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh, announced cooperation between the two countries
on civilian nuclear programs, and had previously called India a
"responsible" nuclear nation (Der Spiegel). These measures drew an
American diplomatic line between India and other nations that have nixed
participation in the NPT, such as North Korea and Iran.
A Turning Point in Relations With China?
Many have compared India's pattern of growth to its neighbor, China.
The countries have much in common-physical borders, immense populations,
similar challenges, ancient civilizations, and quickly-rising economies.
India also measures itself against China, coveting its economic power
and international standing, including its permanent seat on the United
Nations Security Council.
Though a degree of tension does remain between the two nations, with
lingering memories of the brief 1962 war in which China soundly defeated
India, the relationship between these two Asian giants is warming up.
Trade between them is now increasing at a vigorous pace, and diplomatic
relations are at a post-1962 highpoint. Chinese Prime Minister Wen
Jiabao, during a recent visit to New Delhi, hailed cooperation between
the two nations as the driving force of a new "Asian Century." Indian
Prime Minister Singh spoke of the potential for India and China to
rearrange the world order by working together. Many have pointed out
that their economic strengths seem to be tailor-made for a partnership.
India seeks to be a major player in the computer software world in the
same way that China is in the area of hardware. Cooperation between
Beijing and New Delhi could prove a dominant force in the information
technology market.
Both nations have a voracious appetite for natural resources, and a
recent energy deal neatly symbolized the new Sino-Indian dynamic: India
acquired a 20% share in the development of the largest onshore oil field
in Iran. The venture happens to be operated, and 50% owned, by Sinopec-China's
state-run oil company. z However, India could seek to undercut China's
manufacturing prices (as China did with many Southeast Asian countries
in the 1990s). But it is more likely to pursue a different segment of
the world market by producing higher-quality goods, as well as entirely
different products. Time will tell exactly how the relationship will mix
competition and cooperation. These two nations both aspire to
"first-world" status-and economic gains could be the incentive for a
more tightly allied Asia.
"Kings of the East"
We need not merely guess where world events will ultimately lead.
While many of the details remain to be seen, the overall framework of
the future has been recorded in advance in one book-the Holy Bible.
In nations such as India, the size of population alone pulls them
toward superpower status. Bible prophecy describes global power
blocs-superpowers, or groups of superpowers-that will be prominent at
the end of the age, shortly before Jesus Christ returns. These powers
will be based in the north (Europe), the south (the Arab world), and the
"kings of the East"-a group of Asian nations that will band together,
eventually fielding a standing army of two hundred million (Rev. 16:12;
9:16; Dan. 11)!
The nations of the West, including the United States, are headed for
hard times as a result of their national and personal sins against the
God that inspired the Bible.
He reveals that they will be forsaken by their allies, called
"lovers" in Scripture: "And when you are spoiled, what will you do?
Though you clothe yourself with crimson, though you deck yourself with
ornaments of gold, though you rend your face with painting, in vain
shall you make yourself fair; your lovers will despise you, they will
seek your life...All your lovers have forgotten you; they seek you not;
for I have wounded you with the wound of an enemy, with the chastisement
of a cruel one, for the multitude of your iniquity; because your sins
were increased" (Jer. 4:30; 30:14).
India is today one of these "lovers," but one that will soon prove to
be something very different. So will other nations that Western
countries now consider to be allies.Keep watching India's growth toward
superpower status-just one part of the inevitable rise of Asia!
(courtesy: www.realtruth.org) |