Strike against bus fare or Mugabe's ruling

Zimbabwe's trade unions have called a two-day national strike last week ostensibly over the plummeting value of wages under rampant inflation that has left many people unable to afford the bus fare to work.

But many Zimbabweans view the strike as a demand for an end to Robert Mugabe's 27-year rule. Previous attempts to call a strike have flopped, in part because of intimidation by the police and army, but also because almost anyone with a job in a country with 80% unemployment is desperate to hang on to it.

If Monday's protest fails to prove a turning point it will also be because, in the eyes of many Zimbabweans, the political opposition has again missed the opportunity to capitalise on a surge of public anger at home and one of the periodic bursts of pressure on Mr Mugabe from abroad that followed the increasingly violent repression of the president's opponents.

There was a flicker of hope among many in Zimbabwe that their president may have pushed things too far. But three weeks later, Mr Mugabe appears emboldened and his opponents are still struggling to challenge him.

"The MDC [the Movement for Democratic Change opposition] promised us they would get rid of him years ago. We are waiting," said Debora Mukasa, a market trader who says she now earns only enough to give her children one meal a day. "What can we do? If we protest, the police beat us or the army shoots us. I don't know how we get rid of this man."

Many ordinary Zimbabweans say they are waiting for the MDC to lead the way. Its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, says he is waiting for the people to rise up and then he will take charge. Felix Muzambi, a member of the MDC's national executive, is among those who thinks that will not happen soon.

"People are angry but they are passive. There is trouble here and there, but they are not ready to go out and die for the cause. I think they are looking for others to do it for them. They want Mugabe to go, but it's hard to get them mobilised," he said.

The failings of the political opposition are reflected in the rise of civic organisations and church-led protests through movements such as the Save Zimbabwe Campaign, which has attempted to organise mass prayer meetings.

"I'm not one of those who believes Mr Mugabe's fall is imminent," said the leader of one prominent civic protest group, Mike Davis of the Harare Combined Residents Association.

"It will probably come from a mix of pressures, but I don't think we can expect mass street protests to be a factor until his last days. It will be other internal pressures, particularly the economy, that will bring him down, when he runs out of money to spread his patronage and those in Zanu-PF realise they are going to lose everything."

Zimbabwe's Catholic archbishop, Pius Ncube, has called Zimbabweans "cowards" for not taking to the streets to confront Mr Mugabe's forces. But Mr Davis says he does not blame people for that. "Just surviving day-to-day is so demanding for people.

Some of the people I know spend four hours a day walking to work and back because the bus fare takes all their pay," he said." There are now more Zimbabweans working in South Africa than here. They are the kind of people who could have been expected to join protests, but they've had to leave to find work. That's provided relief for Mugabe."

Some Zimbabweans persuaded themselves that the region's leaders would tell Mr Mugabe he has to go at a summit meeting last week. But Zimbabwe's president emerged proclaiming it a great victory because his neighbours pronounced his rule legitimate and blamed Britain and its allies for Zimbabwe's problems.

Then Mr Mugabe's many dissenters reassured themselves that the ruling Zanu-PF's central committee meeting last Friday would produce a revolt against his plans for another five years in power.

But the president proved as adept as ever at outmanoeuvreing his opponents, packing the meeting with dancing supporters singing liberation war songs and turning it into a rally at which he stifled all debate and engineered his confirmation by acclamation as the party's candidate in next year's election.

Many Zimbabweans say that their country cannot sustain galloping inflation and chronic unemployment and food shortages for much longer.

But they do not have to look far beyond their borders for examples of how much further their own country could sink.

Citizens of the Democratic Republic of Congo watched the erosion of their nation over three decades until there was hardly a proper road outside a few major cities. The telephone system, hospitals and schools rotted away. Today, most of Congo's population knows little else but the rot.

Guardian Unlimited