LTTE air 'threat' and disaster management
by Wg. Cdr. C. A. O. Direckze (rtd)
The bombing of the SLAF Base Katunayake, the Army Camp at Jaffna, the
CPC establishments at Kolannawa and the Muthurajawela Gas facility, by
the LTTE utilizing 'light aircraft' brings in a new and very dangerous
dimension to the current hostilities.
The acquiring of two or three light aircraft by the LTTE in my humble
opinion does not constitute an 'air force,' but rather an 'air threat.'
Nevertheless this air threat provides the LTTE with the ability to
change the current disaster scenario, and create disaster situations the
magnitude of which we have never experienced before.
The ease with which the LTTE came, bombed, and returned to base would
indicate that our current air defences are inadequate to meet this air
threat. This is a very serious situation, and needs to be evaluated and
to be managed.
The purpose of this paper therefore is to evaluate the air threat,
the air defence facility, to identify the worst case disaster scenario
in relation to the air threat, and to attempt to formulate a disaster
management plan to eliminate the LTTE air threat.
EVALUATION OF THE LTTE AIR THREAT: In order to manage the LTTE 'air
threat' it is necessary to first evaluate the probable threat. From
information available to the general public, the LTTE air threat
consists of two or three light aircraft, an efficient engineering
facility, a limited training facility, and an Improvised Explosive
Devices producing facility.
The aircraft have a flying range of 1300 to 2000 km, a speed of 260
km/h to 460 km/h., and a take-off distance of 550 to 650km. It also has
the ability to fly very low in order to avoid detection by radar. This
information though very basic is adequate to formulate a strategy to
manage the current air threat posed by the LTTE.
SMALL ARMS VS. LIGHT AIRCRAFT: I was seated by the window opposite
the left wing of the SLAF DC 3 aircraft as it began it's descent into
Jaffna airport. We were at an altitude of approximately 600 feet, when I
heard a 'burst' of small arms fire from the ground.
There were three such bursts, and on the third burst I saw a small
hole in the left wing of the aircraft approximately 10 feet from where I
was seated. The SLAF DC3 aircraft had been hit by LTTE 'small arms fire'
from the ground.
The time factor from the first to the third burst was less than 05
seconds, which indicates that the LTTE gunner had the aircraft in his
'sights' for not more than 05 seconds. It is therefore possible to hit
and destroy a light aircraft with small arms fire from the ground.
This incident provides us with two important factors to formulate a
disaster management strategy, first that the LTTE aircraft have to fly
very 'low' in order to accurately bomb their targets and therefore they
will be within range of small arms fire from the ground, and secondly
their speed is approximately 75 to 125 metres per second which means
that they will remain in the 'sights' of the Gunner for only a very
short time, and therefore the Gunner must be very professional at his
task.
The next step in the formulation of the disaster management strategy
is to identify the probable LTTE targets, and to define the 'worst case
disaster scenario.'
LTTE TARGETS: The first two LTTE 'air' targets were military
establishments, and the third was a human and economic target. It would
appear that the LTTE is shifting its focus from the 'hard military'
targets to 'soft' civilian economic targets.
These three air attacks demonstrate that the LTTE air threat has the
potential to attack any target they choose to in the south. At this
moment of time it is not possible to defend all the probable targets,
but the very high risk human and economic targets must be identified and
protected from any further air attacks.
The Kolannawa Oil Installation and the Muthurajawela LPG facility are
such very high risk targets, and we must consider ourselves very lucky
that the pilot missed his targets. We must also realise that 'luck' is
not a component of disaster management, and hence we must not depend on
luck in the future.
PROBABLE 'WORST CASE' DISASTER SCENARIO: Had the bombs that were
dropped on the Kolannawa Oil Installation hit their targets the disaster
would have been of a very much greater magnitude than the ground attack
in 1995.
There are other similar very high risk installations, such as the LP
gas storage, LPG filling stations, power generation installations, etc.
The WORST case disaster scenario would be where these separate very high
risk installations are located in close proximity to each other in a
'cluster'.
If a cluster of these very high risk installations which are located
in built-up areas is bombed, the cumulative effect of the resultant
fires and explosions would result in an enormous disaster which we would
most likely not be in a position to control or mitigate.
Therefore it is essential that the LTTE air threat is 'shot-down'
before it can attack any of these targets.
PROTECTION OF TARGETS: These cluster targets are not precise targets
like an air force hangar, and hence any pilot with minimum training
would be able to cause maximum destruction to the entire cluster with
two or three bombs.
With every 'bombing sortie' the Pilots are gaining experience and
efficiency, and hence we may not be so lucky for the next bombing
sortie. These targets are presently protected only by ground troops with
small arms, and also 'chain link fencing' for protection from RPG fire.
All non-military very high risk targets are presently totally
vulnerable from an air attack, and the military targets that are
protected with 'air defence systems' to date have not demonstrated their
ability to destroy the LTTE air threat.
COMPONENTS OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN: Based on the concept that a
'light' aircraft can be shot down by ground troops using 'small arms,' a
disaster management plan to destroy the LTTE air threat can be
formulated based on the following components.
This plan should be formulated and executed by the officer in charge
of the troops responsible for ensuring the ground defense of the very
high and high risk establishments.
1. 'Location' of the Gunner.
2. 'Early' Warning.
3. 'Duration' of the aircraft in the Gunner's 'sights'.
4. 'Training' of the Gunner.
5. 'Gunnery Discipline.'
6. 'Location' for shooting down aircraft.
7. 'Lighting' of target.
1. LOCATION OF THE GUNNER: The gunner must be located in a position
where he has the maximum possible 'view of the aircraft approaching and
leaving him. To achieve this requirement the gunner must be positioned
as close to the 'horizon level' as possible.
The further below the horizon level that he is positioned the smaller
his angle of vision of the aircraft approaching and leaving him. The
higher above the horizon level the more he will be visible to the pilot
who can shoot him down or take appropriate evasive action.
2. EARLY WARNING: The gunner should be given adequate time to prepare
himself, to engage the enemy aircraft, and fire at least one burst of
automatic fire. This early warning requirement would have to be provided
by the 'radar' facility. In the absence of a radar facility forward
observation posts would have to be established to monitor and transmit
information of approaching aircraft.
The location of the forward observation posts would depend on the
preparation time required by the Gunner and the speed at which the
aircraft is flying.
3. DURATION OF THE AIRCRAFT IN THE GUNNER'S SIGHTS: The duration for
which the aircraft will remain in the 'sights' of the gunner, will
depend generally on the location of the gunner in relation to the
horizon level, the height and speed at which the aircraft is flying, and
whether the aircraft is flying towards the gunner or from right to left
of the gunner.
The requirement is to ensure that the aircraft will be in the
'sights' of the gunner for the time required for him to aim and fire at
least one burst of automatic fire.
4. TRAINING OF THE GUNNERS: The gunner must be given adequate
training to the level that he is competent to shoot down the aircraft
with the first burst of his gun fire.
Adequate training in my opinion and experience is the single most
important component of the disaster management facility. At the
commencement of the JVP insurgency in 1970 we were extremely short of
weapons and ammunition, but in a few weeks we were provided with an
abundance of weapons and ammunition.
Hence we were able to carry out night shooting training. We used a
plywood target in the shape and size of a human being.
Every Gunner was required to fire several bursts at the target from
approximately 25 metres. It was dark since it was past mid-night, but
the target was visible. The results were shocking. For every 100 rounds
we fired only 08 bullets hit the target.
In relation to his air defense function the Gunner is firing at an
aircraft at mid-night, that is flying over his head loaded with bombs,
at a speed of approximately 75 to 125 metres per SECOND, and it will
remain in his sights for not more than a few seconds.
His task is therefore almost impossible unless he is 'lucky'. The
training must be 'simulated' training. Light aircraft must be made to
fly over his position at day and also night. The situation he is likely
to be faced with must be simulated for him to achieve the required level
of proficiency.
5. GUNNERY DISCIPLINE: The gunner must never squeeze the trigger of
his weapon unless and until an identified enemy target is in his sights,
particularly in built-up areas. If not some one is liable to die due to
'friendly' fire.
During the first JVP attack on the SLAF Base Katunayake it was the
evening muster parade for the Airport Fire Services, when we heard the
firing, and being curious continued to look in that direction, till a
rifle bullet hit the wall a few feet above our heads. We were lucky. A
rifle bullet also made a hole in the skin of an aircraft parked on the
apron. All friendly damage?
6. LOCATION FOR SHOOTING DOWN AIRCRAFT: This is the most difficult
component of the Disaster Management Plan. When the aircraft is shot
down if it is still carrying the bombs, the Pilot will either drop the
bombs or crash with the bombs which may explode on impact.
The location at which this happens is vital because the bombs will
cause destruction to 'friendly' human beings and property. The ideal is
to intercept and shoot down the aircraft above the sea. But this will
depend on the flight path of the aircraft.
When formulating the Disaster Management Plan this aspect must be
given very serious consideration. If possible aircraft 'shoot down'
locations where available must be identified and the Disaster Management
Plan formulated to ensure minimum destruction to our 'friendly' assets.
People in these areas may even be advised to vacate in their own
interest for the duration of the threat.
7. LIGHTING OF TARGET: The LTTE air attacks have been at night and
hence there has been a problem of a good view of the aircraft. During
the JVP insurgency in 1971 at China Bay we had a similar problem of
lighting up suspected targets. The Air Traffic Control Centre had a very
powerful search light which could be rotated.
We mounted this light on the top of the highest building and utilized
it to survey the entire runway area. This type of search lights could be
used to spot the aircraft and the operator could then fix the light beam
on the aircraft and hold it to the aircraft for as long as required by
the gunner.
CONCLUSION: But if LTTE audacity is not nipped in the bud the
'mosquito bite' that at present only causes an irritation can develop
into the mosquito that injects the deadly dengue fever.
This menace has to be destroyed and destroyed soon, because the LTTE
seem to have changed their tactics from attacking 'hard' military
targets to 'soft' civilian economic targets. The Disaster Management
Plan in relation to the LTTE air threat is to 'destroy' the light
aircraft utilizing the ground troops and 'small arms'.
(The writer is a senior member of the Industrial Security Foundation
(Sri Lanka) Inc.)
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