Will Brown change UK foreign policy?
What changes will Gordon Brown make to British foreign policy when he
succeeds Tony Blair as prime minister? BBC News website world affairs
correspondent Paul Reynolds looks at them issue-by-issue.
Gordon Brown is something of an unknown quantity as far as foreign
policy is concerned. He can probably be described as an Atlanticist and
his pro-American sympathies should not be underestimated, though he will
not be as close to President Bush as Tony Blair has been.
His European instincts incline towards the practical not the
integrationist. He has quietly supported all the interventions carried
out by the Blair-led government - Iraq, Kosovo, Sierra Leone,
Afghanistan - but the question remains as to how far he would undertake
such interventions himself. As chancellor of the exchequer (finance
minister) he has been keen on multinational initiatives on debt and aid,
so he is expected to continue with these.
Relations with America
The expectation is that he will distance himself from President Bush
to some degree. However, Mr Brown has close ties to the United States,
is certainly not personally anti-American and his will not be an
anti-American government.
He is interested in and in sympathy with US politics and history,
knows a number of American political, especially Democratic, leaders
well and holidays at Cape Cod. He might disappoint those who want
Britain to make a decisive break with the Bush administration. A lot
will depend on the decisions he takes over Iraq.
Iraq
He has not backed away from the decision to invade Iraq, but has
hinted he will take a new look at how long the troops might stay. He
said recently: "I take my responsibility as a member of the Cabinet for
the collective decisions that we made, and I believe they were the right
decisions, but we're at a new stage now."
Current British policy is to regroup the 5,500 troops there into one
base, at the airport, this summer but there is no timetable for a total
withdrawal. Mr Blair has always insisted that the troops will have to
stay until conditions for stability are right.
Mr Brown, however, has room to manoeuvre because he could interpret
those conditions more flexibly. This could be the test of how far he is
prepared to diverge from US policy. His own military advisers might also
tell him to get out as quickly as possible, perhaps within a year, to
avoid army overstretch.
Afghanistan
As British policy in Iraq moves towards an endgame, British military
commitments in the war against the Taleban in Afghanistan are increasing
and troop numbers are expected to reach nearly 8,000 later this year. Mr
Brown is not expected to change this commitment.
He has taken a tough stand in the fight against al-Qaeda and believes
that it must not be allowed to regroup in Afghanistan. But Afghanistan
could become a growing problem for him.
International terrorism
It would be wrong to suppose that Mr Brown will weaken Britain's
efforts. Indeed, he has recently proposed tougher laws domestically,
signalling that he thinks domestic and international Islamist terrorism
remains a serious threat.
As chancellor, he has acted against sources of terrorist funding. In
a speech in 2006 he declared his intentions: "This global terrorist
problem must be fought globally - with all the means at our disposal:
military, security, intelligence, economic and culture."
Iran
Mr Brown can be expected to continue supporting UN sanctions against
Iran over its nuclear activities. Asked recently if he would rule out a
military attack on Iran he replied: "We want a peaceful settlement to
the Iran issue." This is in line with current British government policy,
which emphasises a multilateral approach but does not rule out military
action.
However, one of Mr Brown's closest political allies, the former
foreign secretary Jack Straw, has said: "I don't happen to believe that
military action has a role to play in any event. We could not justify
it." So support by Mr Brown for military action is hard to envisage.
Middle East
Gordon Brown has not shown as much interest in Israel/Palestine
issues as Tony Blair has. Britain therefore is not expected to play a
major role under a Brown premiership, which will probably recognise the
limited influence that any single European country can exert.
The appointment of Simon McDonald, a former British ambassador to
Israel, as his foreign policy adviser has delighted the Israelis, who
see McDonald as "friend of Israel".
One of Mr Brown's main areas of interest could be in economic
development for the Palestinians. On a visit to Israel and the
Palestinian territories in 2005, he got Israeli and Palestinian economic
ministers together for the first time in many years.
Sudan
He is likely to support increased sanctions against Sudan in the
Security Council over Darfur and might face a tough decision at some
stage on whether to provide military forces to enforce a no-fly zone
over Darfur, if this is agreed by the Security Council.
European Union
The main issues over the EU treaty were settled at the Brussels
summit, but the new prime minister will have to approve the final
details. As chancellor, Gordon Brown has been more interested in
practical EU policies than in institutional debates. He sees Britain's
future in an EU that is flexible, free-market and pragmatic.
A study in the journal International Affairs in March concluded that
he would be either an "awkward partner" or a "pragmatic player" but not
someone who wanted to put Britain at the forefront of European
integration.
His EU adviser is a Treasury official, John Cunliffe, who knows Mr
Brown's thinking on Europe well. Mr Brown has kept Britain out of the
Euro and this policy is likely to continue. Arguments ahead could come
over Turkish membership, which he wants, state support for industry
which the new French President Nicolas Sarkozy favours, farm policy
reform and Britain's budget contributions.
Climate change
Mr Brown commissioned and accepted the results of the report on
climate change by Sir Nicholas Stern in October 2006, which said that
global warming could shrink the world economy by 20%. He has supported
EU and British targets for carbon reductions.
So he is on board for international action over climate change, which
has come increasingly to dominate world economic discussions.
In March 2007 he said: "The foundation of this must of course be a
new international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond
2012." He added: "My ambition is to build a global carbon market,
founded on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and centred in London." He
has even appointed the former US Vice President Al Gore as an adviser
and action on global warming is another issue on which he is likely to
differ from President Bush.
Aid and development
This was one area in which Gordon Brown made his mark internationally
as chancellor. He has championed debt relief through the "Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries" initiative. He proposed an International
Finance Facility to help the poorer countries to raise capital.
He supported the G8 initiative in 2005 to double aid to Africa. The
UK Treasury says he will have increased the British aid budget to
"nearly Å“6.5 billion a year by 2007-08 - a real terms increase of 140
per cent since 1997". So he can be expected to be active in these areas
as prime minister.
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