A court verdict heralding change?

President Pervez Musharraf is short on options after the reinstatement of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary brings a new mood to Pakistan.

by Nirupama Subramanian

"We have witnessed the birth of a new Pakistan." Supreme Court Bar Association president Munir A. Malik may have sounded hyperbolic as he said those words minutes after the court delivered its historic verdict reinstating Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary and annulling President Pervez Musharraf's reference against him. But those words could well turn out to be prophetic.

The judgment has overnight changed the way people in Pakistan think about themselves, their politics, governance, and judiciary. There is euphoria in the air. "We are now 10 feet tall," wrote analyst Nasim Zehra. "In a common cause, in a national cause, in an institutional cause, in the people's cause everyone had won."

The legal community and politicians have been quick to pronounce that the "days of the military ruler and martial law are over." For the immediate term, it has pushed President Musharraf further into a corner jeopardising his political future.

Only two days before the July 20 verdict, the Pakistan leader did "some plain talking," as one official described it, with editors of Pakistani newspapers. The resurgence of extremism in the country's north-west frontier was the country's main challenge, he told them.

A "unified command" was required to tackle it, and to ensure this he would get re-elected at the end of his term later in the year, from an end-of-term parliament, while remaining "the way I am." He pointed to his uniform as he said that.

The Pakistan leader put down a stark choice before the editors: support me in the battle against extremism or you will be helping the extremists. He did offer one consolation - there would be no emergency; elections would be held as scheduled.

Though a 13-judge full court was set to pronounce its verdict on the President's March 9 attempt to remove Mr. Chaudhary, Mr. Musharraf exuded confidence that nothing could overwrite his roadmap.

He mentioned the impending judgment only in passing: "we have to accept it and move on." In retrospect, it appears he believed the judgment, even if it gave him only a partial victory, was not going to change the big picture.

Given the Supreme Court's history of bowing to military rulers, even lawyers for the Chief Justice did not expect anything more. The legal community, which mounted an extraordinary four-month campaign for his restoration, believed that at best the court would arrive at a compromise verdict denying outright victory to either side: reinstating Mr. Chaudhary but upholding the reference against him, ordering that it be heard in the Supreme Judicial Council.

Clean sweep

In the event, it was a clean sweep for the Chief Justice. More important, it immediately altered the political landscape. In the coming days and weeks, petitions on each of the major issues that Pakistan faces today are likely to flood the courts.

They may seek, among other things, to prevent presidential elections from the outgoing electoral college; to stop the President from seeking re-election while remaining army chief; to fix an age of retirement for General Musharraf; and, if he retires as army chief, to enforce the constitutional requirement that a person in government employment cannot contest elections for two years after retirement.

In addition, Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), and Pakistan People's Party leader, Benazir Bhutto, have indicated that they may move the court to enable their return to Pakistan before the elections.

"It has put a hole in all his plans," said Daily Times editor Najam Sethi. There is, of course, no guarantee that the court will rule against President Musharraf on all or even any of these issues. But according to Mr. S ethi, henceforth, the court's "natural instinct" would be to defy the executive.

It is widely expected that Mr. Chaudhary, acting with judicial propriety, will recuse himself from cases that directly relate to President Musharraf's future political plans. On his second day back in office, the Chief Justice stepped down from two cases being argued by a senior lawyer who appeared for the President during the hearing of his petition.

"But nothing can be said for certain about the other judges anymore, and nothing can be taken for granted as far as the executive is concerned," said Mr. Sethi.The judges now have before them the example of the Chief Justice, whose defiance of military authority appears to have inspired many, if not all, of them.

Their angry July 2 order asking the intelligence agencies to keep out of the court and directing that their houses be swept for listening and hidden camera devices was among the most important consequences of the 10-week-long case. If President Musharraf was worried about Mr. Chaudhary's activism before March 9, he now has to contend with a Supreme Court full of activist judges.

The dignity, intellect, and sophisticated wit that Justice Khalil-ur-Rehman Ramday brought to the proceedings as he presided over the full court has also raised the bar for the judiciary.

Not surprisingly, expectations from the court have risen. Describing the judgment as "a watershed" in the history of the court, Nasir Aslam Zahid, a former Supreme Court judge, expressed the "hope that there will be more" such judgments in the days to come.

"A large number of questions are going to arise in the next few months. The judges should be confident that the people will always support the verdicts that go in favour of the country, and uphold the principles of democracy, rule of law and constitutionalism," said Mr. Zahid.

In the wake of the verdict, many described it as a victory for the robust lawyers' movement that mobilised public opinion in favour of the Chief Justice, implying that the full court bowed to public pressure. But, according to the retired judge, this was not pressure. "Look at it this way.

For the first time in Pakistan's history, the judges had an enabling environment that helped them take the right decision. Judges have realised that the entire power of the people is behind them," he said, dismissing the concern that the judiciary would start deciding cases not on merits but to gain popularity on the streets.

Contrast

He contrasted this to the isolation he experienced in January 2000 when he and five other Supreme Court judges, including Chief Justice Saeed-ur-Zaman Siddiqui, resigned refusing to take a fresh oath swearing allegiance to General Musharraf's military regime three months after he seized power from Mr. Sharif in a coup.

Adding to the sense of impending change in Pakistan, the legal community too has announced that its struggle "to establish the rule of law" will continue. As Mr. Malik, the SCBA president, put it, the reinstatement of the Chief Justice was only "phase one" of their agitation; "phase two," to achieve a civilian democracy, is to follow.

Despite sanguine statements from President Musharraf that he would abide by the verdict, and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz urging "all sections of society" to accept it with grace, the confusion in government ranks is all too apparent.

When Mr. Aziz hunkered down with his Cabinet to discuss the new situation, Ministers are reported to have stressed the need for him to telephone and greet the Chief Justice, and to "improve public relations with the judiciary." Wisely, the government has announced it will not file a review petition.

"The morale of the government has fallen. For Musharraf to go before the National Assembly and the provincial assemblies, when these assemblies are about to conk out, and ask to be re-elected, requires confidence, a certain amount of gumption and chutzpah. That capacity for exhibiting gumption has been shaken by this verdict," said Ayaz Amir, columnist at Dawn and a trenchant critic of the Musharraf regime.

President Musharraf's other option - re-election by a new parliament by cutting a deal with the Pakistan People's Party - has also got more complicated. Its leader Ms. Bhutto has said the court verdict has taken away the "logic" for a deal. Even if she is still willing to arrive at an understanding, her asking price will be much higher.

The electoral prospects of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, his present political cushion, never too high, are dwindling by the day with each crisis of the government's own making.

The popular disbelief of the government's version of the final showdown at Lal Masjid and the continuing controversies about the death toll in the mosque have revealed the regime's credibility crisis, and a Musharraf-fatigue among people.

Hints from the United States of military action inside Pakistan against alleged Al-Qaeda safe havens are adding to President Musharraf's unpopularity. The appeal to moderate forces to rally on the side of a President who can counter the extremist threat by virtue of his uniform is not working. Free and fair elections and a full-fledged democracy are seen as the only cure for militancy and extremism now.

The deteriorating situation in the north-west frontier has given room for speculation that despite his emphatic denials, the Pakistan leader could use the Emergency option. But given the mood across the country, it can only lead to more unrest.

There were moments on that dramatic day in the Supreme Court _ as over 500 lawyers packed into the courtroom, pushing and jostling their way right up to the rostrum as they waited five hours for the judges to return, as if daring them to deliver a verdict unfavourable to the "chief" _ when it seemed that President Musharraf had truly run out of options.

The Hindu