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Sunday, 27 November 2011

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Egypt's new Prime Minister asks for time

Prime Minister-designate Kamal Ganzouri asked Egyptians to "give me a chance" as tens of thousands rally in Cairo against the military rulers.

In his first public comments since being named, he said he would not name a new government before Monday's polls.

The protesters in central Cairo's Tahrir Square want the parliamentary elections postponed. Not far away, a smaller counter-demonstration was held in support of the military and the elections. Over 40 people were killed earlier this week as the security forces tried to break up the massive protests, leading to the worst violence since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in February. People were letting off fireworks and shouting "Down with the military regime," she says.

Despite promises by the council to speed up the process, some protesters fear it intends to cling to power. They want military rule to end before parliamentary elections are held.

Yet many Egyptians want the polls to go ahead as planned. One influential group, the Muslim Brotherhood - which is expected to do well in the vote - is not supporting the Tahrir Square protests. At least 10,000 people staged a rival rally on Friday in Abbasiya Square - near the defence ministry, north of Tahrir Square - to show support for the military's electoral timetable


The euro zone; Is it really the end?

Even as the euro zone hurtles towards a crash, most people are assuming that, in the end, European leaders will do whatever it takes to save the single currency. That is because the consequences of the euro's destruction are so catastrophic that no sensible policymaker could stand by and let it happen.

A euro break-up would cause a global bust worse even than the one in 2008-09. The world's most financially integrated region would be ripped apart by defaults, bank failures and the imposition of capital controls.

The euro zone could shatter into different pieces, or a large block in the north and a fragmented south. Amid the recriminations and broken treaties after the failure of the European Union's biggest economic project, wild currency swings between those in the core and those in the periphery would almost certainly bring the single market to a shuddering halt. The survival of the EU itself would be in doubt.

Yet the threat of a disaster does not always stop it from happening. The chances of the euro zone being smashed apart have risen alarmingly, thanks to financial panic, a rapidly weakening economic outlook and pigheaded brinkmanship.

The odds of a safe landing are dwindling fast. Investors' growing fears of a euro break-up have fed a run from the assets of weaker economies, a stampede that even strong actions by their governments cannot seem to stop. The latest example is Spain. Despite a sweeping election victory on November 20 for the People's Party, committed to reform and austerity, the country's borrowing costs have surged again. The government has just had to pay a 5.1% yield on three-month paper, more than twice as much as a month ago. Yields on ten-year bonds are above 6.5%. Italy's new technocratic government under Mario Monti has not seen any relief either: ten-year yields remain well above 6%. Belgian and French borrowing costs are rising. And this week, an auction of German government Bunds flopped.

The panic engulfing Europe's banks is no less alarming. Their access to wholesale funding markets has dried up, and the interbank market is increasingly stressed, as banks refuse to lend to each other. Firms are pulling deposits from peripheral countries' banks. This backdoor run is forcing banks to sell assets and squeeze lending; the credit crunch could be deeper than the one Europe suffered after Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Add the ever greater fiscal austerity being imposed across Europe and a collapse in business and consumer confidence, and there is little doubt that the euro zone will see a deep recession in 2012-with a fall in output of perhaps as much as 2 percent. That will lead to a vicious feedback loop in which recession widens budget deficits, swells government debts and feeds popular opposition to austerity and reform. Fear of the consequences will then drive investors even faster towards the exits.

Past financial crises show that this downward spiral can be arrested only by bold policies to regain market confidence. But Europe's policymakers seem unable or unwilling to be bold enough. The much-ballyhooed leveraging of the euro-zone rescue fund agreed on in October is going nowhere. Euro-zone leaders have become adept at talking up grand long-term plans to safeguard their currency-more intrusive fiscal supervision, new treaties to advance political integration. But they offer almost no ideas for containing today's conflagration.

Germany's cautious chancellor, Angela Merkel, can be ruthlessly efficient in politics: witness the way she helped to pull the rug from under Silvio Berlusconi. A credit crunch is harder to manipulate. Along with leaders of other creditor countries, she refuses to acknowledge the extent of the markets' panic. The European Central Bank (ECB) rejects the idea of acting as a lender of last resort to embattled, but solvent, governments.

The fear of creating moral hazard, under which the offer of help eases the pressure on debtor countries to embrace reform, is seemingly enough to stop all rescue plans in their tracks. Yet that only reinforces investors' nervousness about all euro-zone bonds, even Germany's, and makes an eventual collapse of the currency more likely.


Indian MPs in uproar over retail reform plans

There has been uproar in India's parliament over the cabinet's decision to open up the retail market to global supermarket chains.

One key government ally, the Trinamool Congress, joined opposition parties in shouting slogans and unfurling banners. The lower house had to be adjourned, and Trade Minister Anand Sharma instead held a press conference to spell out details of the policy.

He said the "India-specific" scheme would create tens of millions of jobs. The cabinet's move allows 51% foreign direct ownership (FDI) of multi-brand retail stores, allowing groups like Tesco and Wal-Mart to open stores. Such operators currently can only sell wholesale in India and not directly to customers.

The policy is an executive decision and does not need parliament's approval. Supporters of the move say it will increase competition and quality while reducing prices, which have been hit by close to double-digit inflation.

Opponents say the multi-nationals will squeeze out India's smaller and poorer traders and drive down prices paid to India's farmers.

 

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