The world's energy future is not hopeless
As part of an institution that is raising the alarm about the future
of the planet, you would expect director of sustainable energy policy at
the International Energy Agency (IEA), Didier Houssin, to be gloomy.
"Scaring people is not always a good strategy," he says. "It's important
to explain that there are solutions, the future is not hopeless."
He concedes that the situation "is not rosy", but "there are some
positive examples and we need to learn from them".
Some clean technologies are progressing fast, with developments in
electric vehicles boding well for a de-carbonised transportation system,
for example, and people can make a big impact with some simple changes
in their lifestyle. But the world's hunger for energy is still satisfied
by coal, says Houssin, and without a more incisive switch to greener
sources he believes the battle against climate change will be lost
within less than a century.
More than ever, countries and industry are trapped in uncertainty
about how to deal with growing energy demand. According to Houssin, and
the Tracking Clean Energy Progress report 2013 published by IEA, we are
not on track to avoid the serious consequences of climate change.
Renewables are doing well, growing more viable on the large-scale
market with some sparkling examples of innovation, particularly in wind
and photovoltaics, but they will not be enough to turn the tide as coal
consumption continues to rise, says Houssin, especially in emerging
economies.
Energy
To explain the problem, the IEA produced three possible scenarios of
global warming that show the link between energy policy and future rises
in average global surface temperature of 2°C, 4°C and 6°C. By modelling
the trends in worldwide energy consumption, assessing how much we
produce and comparing it with our needs, the analysts suggest what we
can do to keep global warming under the threshold of two degrees.
"The present world energy system is still not compatible with a two
degree scenario," Houssin admits. "We are probably somewhere between the
4°C and 6°C degrees. We use the scenario to make it clear that to
mitigate our impact on climate and environment we need to rethink
policies and the industrial system."
So far, the worst mistake has been to underestimate the role of
emerging economies as contributors to the rise in global emissions.
Houssin explains how the IEA has developed an index to assess the carbon
content of the global energy supply. The emerging portrait is daunting:
"Despite all the progress that has been made in renewables, the index
remains flat from the 1990s," he said. In other words, the development
of clean energy technologies hasn't been enough to offset growing energy
demand in countries such as China and India.
"The average unit of energy which is being produced today has the
same carbon intensity as 25 years ago, and the reason is that coal
continues to dominate growth in power generation in emerging countries,"
says Houssin.
Coal-based power generation "has by far outweighed the growth from
non-fossil energy sources. That has been the case for the past 10 years.
And if we look at what happened over the last two years coal has
increased by 6 percent."
Touted as one of the major successes in decarbonising industrial
economies, shale gas is not a sufficiently clean energy source and has
come onstream too slowly, says Houssin. It has been a key factor for
lowering emissions in the US, but remains only a short-term solution.
"Despite all the talking about it, shale gas is not happening yet
outside of northern America, and it is not enough to meet our long-term
goal of a decarbonised power system," he says.
Decline
Houssin is putting his hope in a sharp decline of carbon emission by
2050, to avoid warming of up to 6°C. "We see a future where the power
system is almost entirely decarbonised," he said "and this definition
doesn't mean that we only rely on renewables. Much can be achieved by
implementing electric vehicles, for example.
We should also invest more in carbon capture and storage, because a
fair amount of CO2 will always be there and needs to be removed from the
atmosphere." Renewable technologies will play a prominent role in his
map of a future decarbonised world: "In our best case scenario
renewables would represent about 57 percent of total power generation.
So we are not seeing a future energy system 100 percent based on
renewables, but they would give a much bigger contribution than today."
Solar and wind power generation have grown by more than the IEA
anticipated. For instance, global solar photovoltaic generation grew by
more than 40 percent last year compared with 2011 and wind energy by
almost 20 percent. "These are huge numbers," said Houssin. In the IEA's
best case scenario, wind and solar would each account for 14 percent of
overall power generation.
Although the IEA doesn't factor the impact of potential technological
breakthroughs into its projections, Houssin believes that innovation
will be needed to make the available technologies more competitive and
effective...
But he maintains that the ultimate potential for change lies in
people.
"The awareness about climate change is growing, because we've started
to see it happening, as natural disasters tend to multiply, for example.
The problem is that over the last years the economic crisis became more
serious, and people have tended to focus on problems such as
unemployment, low salaries, energy bills."
But the outlook will be poor without a long-term vision that
encompasses changes in individuals' behaviour.
"Better energy management also means less consumption and lower
bills. Choosing a bike instead of a car saves emissions and it's good
for your pocket." Once people have realised how much of a difference
small changes in their daily routine can make, "then there will be a way
out".
- OurWorld 2.0 |