Reliable statistics essential for decision-making - CB Governor

By Shirajiv Sirimane

"Statistics can be viewed from different angles and a story can be created from the way you look at the statistics", said, Governor, Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Ajith Nivard Cabraal.

"There are people who supply statistics and those who use statistics. Some formally use statistics while others use it casually.

Formal use of statistics is reflected when it is used for decision-making while statistics is used casually by everyone," he said speaking at the third annual technical sessions and Annual General Meeting of the Institute of Applied Statistics Sri Lanka (IASSL) held last week at the Organisation of Professional Association (OPA) auditorium. The theme was, 'Statistics for Life'.

"For example, when a housewife compares monthly household expenditure figures she is using statistics casually, Cabraal who was the chief guest said.

The CBSL has its own Statistics branch which obtains or collects large volumes of statistics on diverse topics. Selected on a priority basis, most are used in preparing the Annual Report. But much more is in storage so that to keep the Annual Report within a manageable size.

Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Dr (Mrs) Rupika Abeynayake and other officials at the the third annual technical sessions and Annual General Meeting of the Institute of Applied Statistics Sri Lanka (IASSL) held last week at the Organisation of Professional Association (OPA) auditorium

To meet the changing environment, when computing different indices, the base year has to be changed. Decision-making should always be based on statistics. We need people who can analyse and interpret statistics for decision-makers while being aware of any limitations of the statistics. Being a statistician is a challenging profession. Statisticians provide crucial guidance in determining what information is reliable and which predictions can be trusted. The Central Bank's Monetary Board is most benefited by statistics and use adaptive changes to match new equilibrium.

The President of IASSL, Prof. Sarath Peiris, Professor in Applied Statistics, University of Moratuwa and Head of the Department of Mathematics said that, statistics is a versatile subject which plays a major role in decision-making and it makes your decision scientifically accepted.

The beauty of statistics is that it has valuable information and to enjoy it, it is necessary to understand statistical concepts correctly. Data (either in numerical, character form or image form) have information considered the most precious resource in the 21st century. As the global economy becomes increasingly electronic, the application of statistics to business and day-to-day applications has increased fast.

"As a result, the importance of statisticians has been recognised by the world. Thus, statisticians in Sri Lanka have a huge responsibility in national development."

Unlike other disciplines, statisticians do not want to demand new laboratories, expensive equipment and chemicals from the Government to contribute to the motherland. He said effective interpretation and communication is important among statisticians as they convince their findings to any client irrespective of the calibre of the client.

The keynote speaker Chanakya Dissanayake, Country Head and Director, Copal Amba, Colombo spoke of new challenges for statisticians and the the responsibility of statisticians in handling big data.

He claimed that 90% of the volume of the world's data was generated in the past two years.

The applied statisticians worldwide are grappling with the challenge of deriving meaningful information from data. He emphasised that Sri Lankan statisticians have no need to go abroad to find jobs, there are better jobs in Sri Lanka for applied statisticians having a good analytical background.

The IASSL conducted the third National Statistics Olympaid recently at five centres (Colombo, Kandy, Matara, Anuradhapura and Jaffna) for students and winners will participate in the International Olympaid Competition in 2015.

Winners were awarded medals and certificates by the IASSL.

The medals were also given for best research to undergraduate and postgraduate students who completed their research components with a considerable amount of statistics during 2013.

The IASSL will conduct the second International Statistics conference from December 28 to 30 at the Galadari hotel in Colombo. It is organised in collaboration with the Department of Bioinformatics & Biostatistics, University of Louisville, USA and the National Science Foundation (NSF) of Sri Lanka.

About 200 statisticians around the world including the presidents of the American and Canadian Statistics Association.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been invited to attend the conference as chief guest. Dr (Mrs) Rupika Abeynayake, Head of the Department of Agribusiness Management, Wayamba University, Makandura was elected as the President of the IASSL for 2015 and she is the first woman president of this Institute.