A new way to travel

What if all trips in a city were carried out by a fleet of self-driving cars shared by users? A latest transport study explores the potential outcomes of such a radical upgrade in an urban mobility system. It concludes that up to 9 out of 10 conventional cars could become redundant under certain circumstances.

Vast amounts of public space would be freed for other uses in such a scenario. However, the total volume of travel increases in most scenarios and the net benefit of such an urban mobility system upgrade decisively depends on the choice of vehicle type, the level of penetration and the availability of high-capacity public transport to complement the shared self-driving car fleet.

Self-driving cars could take nine out of 10 cars off city streets, free up more public space for recreational and commercial use, and even remove the need for expensive rail infrastructure in the future, according to this new study.

Mobility

In the study on 'How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic' released on 23 April 2015, researchers from the International Transport Forum (ITF) at the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) used data modelling techniques to predict how autonomous cars would change the nature of urban mobility in a hypothetical mid-sized European city "at some unnamed time in the future". But we are looking at least 20 years into the future.

As their name suggests, driverless cars can sense road conditions and navigate without human input. A complex array of radar, global positioning system (GPS) and computer technology enables autonomous cars to perform functions such as acceleration, braking, steering, and indicating independently.

These cars have largely been confined to the realm of research and testing to date, with companies such as search engine giant Google developing technology for autonomous electric vehicles and piloting them on the streets of various American states including Washington DC, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan.

Tested

European countries, too, have begun to allow these vehicles to be tested on their roads. Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are among those who have allowed testing autonomous cars in some cities. More recently, car manufacturers such as Mercedes Benz and BMW have also revealed driverless prototypes, with industry observers predicting that 20 years from today, most new cars will be driverless.

This study proposes two interesting ways in which we could share self-driving electric cars in the near future. The two concepts are TaxiBot and AutoVot. TaxiBots are self-driving electric vehicles that can be shared by several people, not unlike some of the shared taxi services that already exist. AutoVots pick up and drop off single passengers sequentially. They deliver the same trips as we see today in terms of origin, destination and timing. Interestingly, the authors of the study say buses can also be replaced with the TaxiBots, but with the advances being made in bus technology buses could turn out to be a better mode of travel. However, this study does not take into consideration the important aspect of goods transport and we can assume that trucks and rail will still be needed for that purpose.

Congestion

The best bit about this study is that a large number of cars can be removed from the cities, without necessarily affecting the number of trips. This is of course the main cause of traffic congestion. Another major benefit is that TaxiBots and AutoVots, which can always be in the move, will need hardly any parking space. Most cities reserve nearly 30% of their space for parking, which can be freed for other purposes if parking is minimized. Multi-storey car parks will also not be needed.

The level of technology needed for this type of vehicular fleet is already within our reach, but the various technologies have to fall into place and become a cohesive whole. Electric cars are already there and driverless cars are entering the mainstream gradually, but it will take some before the traffic management systems can be automated to the level that can ensure a smooth journey for self-driving cars. Besides, if you are used to the privacy of a private car, a shared ride may not be all that appealing. There clearly are physical, infrastructural, social and even psychological barriers that have to be overcome before this kind of scheme becomes successful.

In the meantime, electric cars are gathering steam. Google's revelation that its driverless cars have met with 11 minor accidents has caused a ripple in the industry, but the good news is that Google and its cars are learning how to avoid those in the future. It is a learning curve and we may hear of more such incidents until an almost perfect system can be formulated. Machines will have to learn to take split-second decisions of the kind that human drivers do all the time almost by reflex. With the rights inputs (cameras, radar, lidar etc) they will get better at this.

In fact, the one question that bothers the car industry and the insurance industry is just who is responsible if an accident is caused by a driverless car. Is it the car or the human(s) riding inside ? Tesla, for one, is working on an interim solution.

Autopilot

The Palo Alto, Calif., electric-car maker soon will begin activating semi-autonomous features, including the capability to pass other cars without driver intervention, in its Model S sedans. A driver can trigger the passing function by hitting the turn signal, according to people familiar with the technology. That action not only tells the car it can pass, but also means the driver has given thought to whether the manoeuvre is safe.

Tesla cars will have an "autopilot" that will handle most driving duties on the highway and could even come pick you up on private property with no driver at all. Currently, cars with driver-assistance features, such as those that keep a car within lane lines, are legal and typically require the driver to remain actively engaged in the vehicle's operation. Given the rapid pace of development in the electric and driverless car sphere, it will be an interesting future ahead for driverless cars.