DMK has a fighting chance in Tamil Nadu elections

By B.C. Sharma

The Dravida Munnetra Kzhagam (DMK) led by the 91-year-old political warhorse, Muthuvel Karunanidhi and his son Stalin, has a fighting chance of winning the Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections to be held tomorrow May 16. The All Indian Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) led by incumbent Chief Minister J.Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, is on a weaker wicket, battling as it does an anti-incumbency sentiment among the people.

According to the NDTV election analysis team, a 5.7 percent swing in the votes will put the DMK in the seat of power. In the last State Assembly polls in 2011, the DMK lost because of a 5.22 percent swing against it. A similar swing away from the AIADMK this time round, could de-throne it. And such a swing is not a far-fetched possibility.

The TN Assembly has 234 seats. A party or coalition has to get 118 to get an absolute majority.

Observers say that an anti-incumbency factor, which was not there till floods hit the Eastern districts of the state including Chennai city in December 2015, began to manifest itself after the deluge.

The failure of the government to respond to the long drawn out crisis rapidly was noticed and adversely commented upon.

The incarceration of Jayalalithaa in the unaccounted wealth case dented her public image despite the fact that the conviction was set aside by a higher court. To her discomfiture, the setting aside of the judgment continues to be controversial and some parties are planning to pursue the case.

Jaya’s lacklustre campaign

Jayalalithaa’s campaign this time round has been lacklustre. She started only a month ago and her tour program has not been as extensive as the DMK’s leaders’. She was unsure about her initial list of candidates and reshuffled it, sending out a confusing message to party cadres and supporters. The DMK, on the other hand, started off as early as September 2015.

Despite being 91, Karunanidhi toured a number of constituencies and his son and heir apparent, Stalin, has toured all the 234 constituencies. He not only addressed public meetings but walked into localities and villages to meet people informally.

He is portraying the DMK as being one with the people and the task of governance as a collective one with the slogan Namakku Naame (Api Wenuwen Api) taking a leaf out of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s war-time propaganda book.

While the contest in Tamil Nadu is basically between the behemoths, AIADMK and the DMK or the fronts led by them, there is a Third Front called the Peoples’ Welfare Front (PWF) led by the actor Vijayakanth.

Third front

Those in the PWF are Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK); Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK); Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthagal Katchi (VCK); Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC a breakaway group of the Congress) and the two communist parties, CPI (M) and CPI.

While the mainstream Congress led by Sonia Gandhi is in alliance with the DMK, the Patali Makkal Katchi led by Dr.Anbumani Ramadoss, is standing separately.

Opinion is divided on whether the PWF and the PMK will divide the votes and spoil the chances of the AIADMK and DMK.

But the electoral history of Tamil Nadu shows that people go for stability and the voting will be largely for one or the other of the two main Dravidian parties.

As for the manifestos, all parties have promised a slew of populist measures, negating the value of manifestos in shaping the voting behaviour of the people.

The AIADMK has promised a free cell phone for every identity card holder and subsidy to young women wanting to buy two wheelers.

And of course, every party has promised to impose prohibition since alcoholism is a major problem in Tamil Nadu.

There is the mandatory reference to the Sri Lankan question, with Jayalalithaa going several notches above by promising the impossible - to fight for the establishment of an independent “Tamil Eelam” in Sri Lanka and get dual citizenship for the 100,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in Tamil Nadu. However, interestingly, no political leader barring Vaiko, has mentioned the Sri Lankan question in his or her campaign speeches.