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| Sunday, 31 October 2004 |
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US polls puts key foreign policy briefs on hold WASHINGTON, Saturday (AFP) The US presidential campaign has put key foreign policy dossiers on hold, including Iraq, Iran, North Korea and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but they promise to resurge with a vengeance for whoever wins on Tuesday. If President George W. Bush is re-elected, there will be a certain continuity, although experts say the choices and changes sidelined for the moment will quickly demand attention. A victory for Democratic challenger John Kerry will probably put things in flux until his January 20 inauguration. During that two-and-a-half-month transition period, government business would be conducted by a "lame duck" Bush administration still legally in charge but realistically drained of much of the weight and authority of office. Iraq will undoubtedly be critical, obliging the president or president-elect to shift quickly and seamlessly out of the set-piece campaign rhetoric of recent months and state out a real, doable agenda, said James Steinberg of the independent Brookings Institution. "I think one of the problems here is that on neither candidate's side have we gotten a lot of clarity about what they think is both an achievable and acceptable end state" in Iraq, he said. Bush for the moment is sticking to his goal of holding credible elections in Iraq in January, although events on the ground there have cast serious doubts on the prospects. Kerry has been vowing to bring new allies into the Iraqi fold to share the burden now almost exclusively on Washington's shoulders, but to date there has been nothing to indicate he will be able to pull it off. The election is sure to have a profound effect on the International Conference on Iraq in Egypt November 22-23, where the United States will be represented by a Bush administration either reinforced by a second term, or packing its bags. Experts see the Iranian and North Korean nuclear dossiers as having little prospect of forward motion until the election clouds clear and fundamental decisions are taken in Washington - either by President Bush or President Kerry. Secretary of State Colin Powell, back from an Asian tour dominated by North Korea, acknowledged the rulers in Pyongyang are probably waiting to decide on any resumption of the six-party nuclear talks that have been stalled for two months. The North Koreans "may well be waiting for the election," he said recently. "That is their choice to make, but the election is coming up ... and then the North Koreans can see whether or not it's time for them to make a move." Iran has until November 25, the date set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to furnish proof that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes. That date will give Teheran sufficient time to tailor its response to the election results. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, largely swept under the carpet by both candidates, will also probably retake the post-election limelight, particularly amid the serious illness of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. |
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