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by Ranga Jayasuriya

The prevailing spate of killings in the East is destabilizing the ceasefire agreement and the peace process at large.

But, looking back on the bumpy road through which the ceasefire progressed since its implementation at midnight, February 21, 2001, it is hard to suggest that the recent violence would lead to the collapse of the truce agreement.

The CFA has held in the face of a number of serious ceasefire violations in the past. But this does not mean it is immune to any future violations.

The ceasefire is far from collapsing. The real danger, however, is that recent violence could fuel the mistrust between the two parties, thus hindering any effort to resume the stalled peace talks.

Of course, one can not argue the possibility of a small incident snow balling into a larger confrontation.

But, the past three years have ample evidence of the two parties exercising utmost restraint to avoid a bigger confrontation.

The conduct of the LTTE during the ceasefire is indicative of a restraint exercised by the Tiger leadership when there was a threat of a small incident leading to a bigger confrontation. Remember the sinking of an LTTE ship allegedly involved in arms smuggling in the seas off Mullaitivu, which killed 12 hardcore sea Tigers.

And the shooting of Kanchikudah, where Special Task Force Commandos fired at the LTTE instigated protesters trying to storm the camp killing a score of protestors.

On both occasions and many more which followed, the LTTE's reaction was limited to condemning the Security Forces, demanding investigation and of course warnings of "grave concern".

Of course, the LTTE is fighting a shadow war to enthrone its supremacy in the East. But it can not afford to go back to a full scale war. Nor can the Government.

The Ceasefire, albeit, all its faults has produced tangible peace dividends; it has increased investor confidence in the South and given a sense of normalcy in the North-East which has recorded a 12.6 per cent economic growth during the ceasefire, in contrast to a meagre 3.4 per cent prior to the CFA.

The Head of the Scandinavian truce monitors, Hagrup Haukland, having met with the LTTE Political Chief, S.P. Thamilselvan on Thursday, sounded optimistic of the continuance of the truce agreement.

Haukland, while stressing that the routine killings in the East is destabilizing the Ceasefire, was optimistic that the CFA would hold.

Indeed during their meetings with the SLMM Chief this week, both parties, renewed their assurance to the continuance of the ceasefire.

That is, also, the standard response of both parties, whenever they are accused of ceasefire violations.

The SLMM Chief also met Defence Secretary Major General Ashoka Jayawardene, Tri-Service Commanders and Deputy Head of the Peace Secretariat Dr. John Gooneratne on Friday.

Thamilselvam after meeting with Mr Haukland and Charge de Affaires of the Norwegian Embassy Laegrid Oddavar - who was representing the Norwegian peace facilitators- indeed, warned that the Ceasefire was at a "grave risk", but he hastily added that the Tigers did not want to resume the war.

The LTTE's concerns centred on the disarmament of the "paramilitary groups" and a security guarantee for the transport of the LTTE cadres between the East and the Wanni.

"We are not asking for the moon. We only request that the Government sincerely implements Clause 1.8 to put an end to the accelerating violence by these groups, which alone can ensure a violent free environment," LTTE's official web site quoted Thamilselvan as saying to the Head of the Mission.

This sounds like an innocent demand, but clause 1.8 of the Ceasefire Agreement which stipulated the disarmament of the non-LTTE Tamil political activists has accounted for dozens of lives of EPDP,PLOTE,EPRLF (Varathan Group) and TELO activists who were disarmed under the ceasefire agreement.

Now, Thamilselvan wants the Security Forces to disarm the Karuna loyalists, most of whom were not long ago the die-hard fighters of the battle-hardened Jayanthan Brigade.

Even if the Security Forces genuinely attempt disarmament of the Karuna cadres whould not be an easy task.

The Karuna group does not operate from a base and is engaged in hit and run operations and killing of selected LTTE cadres.

Further more, the advantage of the geography in the East is on their side.

There is an interesting anecdote: In March, last year, when Karuna broke away from the mainstream LTTE and announced that he would lead a separate group of 5,000 Eastern cadres, the Wanni LTTE Headquarters announced that it would send cadres to collect weapons of the renegade Eastern rebels.

Indeed, Karuna had a display of heavy weapons in the Meenam base, from where he operated his first days as a renegade leader.

When this writer one day asked Karuna's spokesman, Varathan about the LTTE announcement of sending weapon collectors, he said in his sarcastic way:"it is not like going shopping".

Later Karuna went underground, having disbanded nearly 5,000 strong Eastern LTTE outfit and Varathan's phone never answered.

It is what Prabhakaran could not accomplish a year ago that Thamilselvan demands the Security Forces to do.

Even for the Security Forces, in Varathan's word it won't be like going shopping. It is naive to expect Karuna's cadres to hand over their weapons, when it is crystal clear that the LTTE pistol men are after them.

Further more, disarming para-military groups alone will not ensure "a violent free environment." If this is done without a firm assurance from the LTTE to stop killings of political opponents, this will only pave the way for a free run of the LTTE pistol gang members.

The recent history of the Ceasefire provide ample evidence in this regard.

Security guarantee for the transport of the LTTE cadres between the East and the Wanni is the other issue of concern of the LTTE. Haukland discussed the issue with the Tri-Forces commanders and the Deputy Chief of the Peace Secretariat John Gooneratne on Friday.

The SLMM Chief later told the Sunday Observer that a settlement has not yet been reached on the issue, "but I think we are on track".

The issue will be taken up when they meet on Monday.

The donor co-chairs - European Union, United States, Japan and Norway- who met on Tuesday at one of regular follow-up meetings to evaluate the progress of the peace process sounded their concerns at the deteriorating security situation.

"Unless security is guaranteed, a central pillar of the Ceasefire Agreement will be undermined. If the Ceasefire ceases to function, the wider peace process would be jeopardized and international support for that process would be deeply eroded," said the donor co-chairs of the Tokyo donor conference.

The co-chairs demanded the LTTE to stop all killings and the government to disarm para-military groups and prevent them from any activity that might lead to acts of violence.

But, violence continues unabated. In Pottuvil an LTTE gunmen killed a police constable, M.Weerasinghe (37) and a youth, who succumbed to injuries on Thursday.

On the same day, two STF commandos and a police constable were injured in a grenade attack, while guarding a tsunami relief camp in Akkaraipattu.

And the funeral of Lance Bombardier Sumith Kumara (20) gunned down by an LTTE gunman last week was attended by a massive crowd in his home town Pollonnaruwa.

www.hemastravels.com

http://www.mrrr.lk/(Ministry of Relief Rehabilitation & Reconciliation)

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