Which path will the LTTE resort to resolve the national conflict?

As the nation was preparing to celebrate the liberation of the East in Colombo, Security Forces received information on Wednesday that more than 300 Tiger cadres were moving on the A-9 road towards Puliyankulam.

According to reports they were equipped with all weaponry including mortar charges and were heading towards either to Mannar, Vavuniya or Weli Oya. Though, the real intention of those LTTE cadres was not so clear, it was obvious that the LTTE was preparing for a major offensive to overrun Security Forces FDLs in Vavuniya, Mannar or Weli Oya.

But in the wee hours on Friday Tiger cadres made an attempt to overrun Army detachment at Neelachchena in the Mannar area came under LTTE mortar attack around 2:45 a.m. and Security Forces have retaliated inflicting casualties to the LTTE.

The Army detachment is located in West of Wellankulam on the Vavuniya Mannar road and the LTTE made yet another attempt to overrun another Army detachment in Vavuniya Madhu road on the same day.

During the confrontation at Neelachchenai, three soldiers were killed and nine soldiers injured. However, troops foiled the LTTE attempt to overrun the Army detachment killing at least 9 LTTE cadres. The Security Forces confirmed this figure through the intercepted radio transmissions of the LTTE and it was further revealed that 20 Tiger cadres were also injured during this attack.

In a subsequent operation conducted in the area Security Forces recovered three T-56 rifles, 13 T-56 Magazines, 355 T-56 Ammunition, three RPG bombs, three Hand grenades, one stretcher, one water bottle and pair of rubber slippers.

That was the immediate response of the LTTE towards the President's appeal to the LTTE to seriously assess and accept the realities and abandon their military approach to liberate the Tamil people, in his address to the nation from the Independence Square.

It is now obvious that LTTE is not willing to give up their violent path, and is engaged in more determined effort to regain their lost territories, following their humiliating defeat in the East, specially with the loss of Thoppigala which was under their control for nearly three decades.

Mop up operations

The Troops are now engaged in mop up operations to further confirm their victory flushing out Tiger cadres hiding inside various parts of Thoppigala jungle. They further enhanced the security inside the jungle after recovering the full parts of the 12 barrel 107 mm Iran made Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL), which was frequently used by the LTTE against the advancing troops during the Thoppigala battle.

In a series of unearthing conducted since Wednesday Army was able to obtain the complete system of the 12-barrel rocket launcher, by which the LTTE terrorists had killed thousands of civilians and soldiers. At Meeyangolla in Thoppigala, troops found the remaining launching barrels and other accessories of the MBRL. Late in the evening on Friday, troops also found six Rockets used for the MBRL, fifteen riffles (T-56), one grenade launcher, one Rocket Propeller Grenade (RPG) launcher, one 82mm mortar launcher, and six RPG bombs from the same area.

At a separate finding in the Meeyangolla area, troops uncovered 130kg of TNT high explosives and few detonators. The explosives were found in two 25kg and two 40kg cans.

Therefore, the chances of the LTTE to make a come back and take control over the loss territories is fast fading away, under these circumstances. The six infantry battalions deployed to consolidate the ground will further diminish their hopes as it is very unlikely that LTTE would get such a force to immediately defeat the Security Forces.

It is most unlikely they could operate without any ground support for them in the Eastern province, as they do not posses a single base to take cover from the Security Forces. Therefore, the only option available with the LTTE is to mingle with the civilians and destabilize the Government plans to restore civil administration in the Eastern province.

The assassination of Chief Secretary of the Eastern Provincial Council was such a despicable act committed by the LTTE in their desperate bid to foil Government plans to restore civil administration in the East.

The Chief Secretary to the Eastern Province , Mr Herath Abeyweera, was gunned down by an LTTE terrorist on July 16 while he was in his office located at the Inner Harbour Road in Trincomalee at 6.00 p.m.

Mr Herath Abeyweera has been of service for the past 15 years for Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims as Ampara District Secretary prior to his appointment as the Chief Secretary of the Eastern Province.

The real motive of this despicable act is to create fear psychosis among the government servants in the Eastern province thereby preventing them from supporting the Government plan to develop the East.

However, Government is determined to face this challenge and go ahead with their plans to restore all lost democratic rights of the civilian population in the East including their right to elect their leaders according to their wish.

The Police Special Task Force will come forward to maintain law and order in Batticaloa and Ampara easing the task entrusted with the Security Forces in the Eastern province and very soon in the North.

Going through the events unfolded during this week it was obvious that the LTTE was preparing for a major assault on the defences in the Weli Oya sector sandwiched between the Trincomalee and Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.

Welioya sector

The mortar attack launched on Ethavetunuweva in Weli Oya injuring two civilians was one sign that there is massive LTTE build up there in Weli Oya sector within the past few weeks.

Two women, Karunawathie, aged 58 years, and Niranjala, aged 25 years injured due to LTTE mortar fire were transferred to Anuradhapura General Hospital after being initially treated at Padaviya hospital.

The LTTE had launched several mortar attacks at villages close to the Eastern part of the Wanni Forward Defence Line (FDL) during the recent past. On July 15 two civilians, a mother and daughter suffered injuries when the LTTE terrorists had launched a similar attack at the same village.

The villages of Ethavetunuvewa located very close to the Nedunkerni area will be vulnerable to Tiger attacks and even for attacks in the nature of Kebithigollewa as LTTE can easily use the attacks of this nature for large-scale displacement of Sinhalese civilians from the area.

The LTTE may resort to such action as they easily can exert pressure on the Rajapaksa administration, to stop any military action to take further control of the Northern province as it would definitely lead to the fall of their strongholds in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu.

Tiger leader Prabhakaran will definitely select the theatre in Weli Oya so that he can easily sphere a threat on the Eastern theatre especially to Trincomalee if they succeeded in their efforts. Under these circumstances it is most likely that the LTTE would use Oddusudan and Nedunkerni as the launching pad to attack Weli Oya as they are having a good supply route network connecting the area directly with Mullaitivu.

Therefore, the Security Force believe the 300 strong Tiger group would have moved towards Oddusudan to have build up to launch an attack on Weli Oya sector.

The red alert maintained by the Security Forces and the Police for more than one year should not be relaxed at any moment as the Tiger outfit is awaiting such a moment to reverse the victories achieved by the Security Forces in the East any moment. That would be the best Timeing by the LTTE as it was facing a shortage of manpower as well as arms and ammunition.

Even such battle would be a deadly task for the LTTE with the loss of the Eastern theatre fully from their hand. The worst scenario for the LTTE is that they are already engaged in one battlefront in the West of Omanthai and Madhu area.

According to Security Forces there is a huge LTTE presence in West of Omanthai and they have shifted their cadres in Mullaitivu area too to strengthen their defences in the West of Omanthai. According to Security Forces in the battles West of Omanthai the LTTE had suffered hugely losing a large number of their cadres.

Therefore, the LTTE will have to deploy their cadres on two fronts and they have no means of calling reinforcements to back their battles from the East. Under these circumstances the LTTE can now realize what they have lost during the past one year commencing July 26 last year with the launch of Mavil Aru battle.

The year long battle in the East has lessened the burden on the Security Forces very much as they can very easily mobilize their strength in the FDLs in Mannar, Vavuniya and Weli Oya to face any impending threat from the LTTE.

At present the only task entrusted with the Security Forces in the East is to clear land mines and consolidate their position further strengthening the security of the civilian population.

With the completion of this phase of the operation the Police Special Task Force and the Police very easily can secure the captured territories in the East enabling the Security Forces to defend the FDLs in the Wanni front and Jaffna front.

That is the biggest advantage the Security Forces has gained through the liberation of the Eastern province from the LTTE grip fully running across the battles in Mavil Aru, Muttur, Sampur, Manirasakulam, Gangai, Vakarai, Kathirveli, Peraru jungles, Kokkadicholai, Vavunativu, Karadiyanaru and last in Thoppigala.

If the Security Forces ignored the fortified Tiger bases inside Thoppigala considering them as bases without any strategic importance the Security Forces would not be able to have this advantage as LTTE would take that chance to regain control in the East.

The eased threat on the Trincomalee harbour is also an added advantage as it ensures the free flow of goods to the Jaffna peninsula in the event of a pending battle in Wanni or in Jaffna.

Secure beach fronts

At this time the Government is contemplating on two major plans to pressurize the LTTE to come to negotiation table by further moving into the Tiger held areas in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu.

If LTTE make any desperate attempt to launch a major assault on the Security Forces in the Weli Oya sector the Security Forces has the option to move further North of Kokilai lagoon and create a beach front cutting off the LTTE supplies by sea.

However, through the huge presence of Sea Tiger cadres Nayaru in the North of Kokilai to Mullaitivu and further towards Thalaiadi in Jaffna peninsula the LTTe can pose a stiff resistance towards the Security Forces.

The Sri Lanka Navy will have to play a vital role to secure the beachfronts from Nayaru to Mullaitivu as the major threat would come from the Sea Tigers in these battles.

One important factor in these battles is that these will be very much different from the battles in the East as the Tiger outfits fire power remains intact in the Wanni sector, as they were not exposed to any battle in the recent past. Therefore, firepower will play key role in these battles both in the sea and the ground. Therefore, it is vital to keep their supplies cut off to the Tiger outfit. The only remaining means the LTTE depend for their supplies is through the fishing boats and they take the advantage of the Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan territorial waters to smuggle arms and ammunition to the land. However, the Tigers arms smuggling via Gulf of Mannar can also be stopped if troops operating in Vavuniya Madhu road move further towards the North cutting off their beachfronts in Vedithalthivu in North of Mannar. To face all these battles the Security Forces are now in a much more advantageous position after the liberation of the Eastern province from the LTTE as they can not only mobilize the man power but also the fire power deployed to man many FDLs scattered all over the Eastern province.

However, the Government will not contemplate on any of these military plans if the LTTE express its willingness to enter negotiation table giving up all their unrealistic demands to find a political solution to the Tamil question. Ultimately, the ball is now in the LTTE court and it should wisely select which path they should resort to resolve the Tamil question.

Pictures by Kavindra Perera
Location: Thoppigala