Is John Howard losing his nerve, Down Under?
 The Howard Government has suffered a dramatic slump in support among
young Australians as secret Coalition research shows one in four voters
aged 18-24 have swung to Labour since Kevin Rudd became Opposition
Leader.
The polling, taken in mid-May, has unnerved senior ministers and
confirms a strong community mood for "generational change" in Canberra.
Mr. Rudd has shifted about 10 per cent of 25 to 34-year-olds into
Labour's column, and more than 15 per cent of part-time workers - a sign
that WorkChoices is still biting.
The Government is viewed by younger voters as arrogant and lacking in
energy, according to the qualitative polling which seeks the reasons
behind the hard numbers.
Younger voters see John Howard as losing his nerve and not reacting
well to pressure, the research says.
Mr. Rudd, on the other hand, is rated as energetic and enthusiastic
and wins applause for appearing cool under pressure, unlike his
predecessors - Kim Beazley, Mark Latham and Simon Crean.
The really bad news for the Coalition is that the youth vote may have
already bolted.
Swapping leaders now to address the concerns of the under-35s would
not solve the Government's problems, the polling suggests, because
voters believe Mr. Rudd is better placed to achieve "generational
change" for the nation than Peter Costello.
Four million of the 13.5 million voters on the electoral roll are
younger than 35.
Separate calculations by The Weekend Australian identify six
Coalition marginal seats as sitting exclusively in the youth belt,
including the Prime Minister's electorate of Bennelong, in which the
proportion of voters aged 18-35 is more than the national average of
31.6 per cent.
The Coalition research suggests that the Government risks losing
office in good economic times, in part, because of a bottom-up backlash
from workers who were too young to remember the last recession in
1990-91. Concerns about climate change and Work Choices appear to be two
of the triggers for the youth revolt.
Labour requires 16 seats to form government in its own right, or 15
if it is to rule with independents. Polling by Newspoll also shows the
Government had drawn level with Labour in the 18 to 34-year-old bracket
by the time of the 2004 election and largely held that ground until the
middle of last year.
But the tide began turning in the second half of last year.
Labour had a five percentage-point lead on the primary vote by
November - 41 per cent to 36 per cent.
Mr. Rudd's elevation in December then accelerated the swing.
The latest detailed Newspoll for the June quarter puts Labour's
primary vote lead in the youth belt at 23 percentage points - 53 per
cent to 30 per cent.
Voter concern about water policy and the environment more generally
had risen to match economic management as a top-line issue over the past
12 months, Newspoll chief executive officer Martin O'Shannessy said
yesterday. "Generally speaking, the polls are saying the Coalition vote
is fading," he said.
"It's fading very rapidly in the 18-34 age group and it's fading not
so rapidly elsewhere, but there is nowhere yet where Mr. Howard is
clearly gaining supporters."
The secret Coalition research looks at swings after preferences.
The Newspoll data deals with primary voting intention.
Both results are in synch.
Earlier this year, the Ipsos Mackay Report, the highly regarded
social research series founded by Hugh Mackay, revealed the under-30s
were favourably disposed to Mr. Howard as a leader.
But there was also a tiredness with his Government.
The latest research shows that while Mr. Howard is still not loathed,
the public is waiting for him to move on.
"In this sense, maybe fatigue is worse than hate," said Rebecca
Huntley, director of research for the Ipsos Mackay Report, of Mr.
Howard's dilemma.
(Courtesy: Perthnow)
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