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| Sunday, 8 May 2005 |
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Cease Fire Agreement - Positive balance sheet by Ranga Jayasuriya Ironically enough, ultra-nationalists in the South and their opponents, LTTE proxies and their propagandists in the North could strike common ground at least on one issue. Last week, when the Indian Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran met the Tamil National Alliance, the LTTE proxy party lamented that the peace process had not produced tangible peace dividends to the people in the North-East and "nothing tangible had been done to further the peace process". On the other extreme,the marxist JVP and the all bhikkhu, Jathika Hela Urumaya want the people to believe that the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) had abandoned the sovereignty of the Sri Lankan state, or given into the LTTE, Common ground Both parties may find reasons to prove (partially) their cause as the peace process and the CFA could not live up to its full expectations. That is understandable because there is no 100 per cent perfect peace process implemented any where in the world. The CFA is not flawless and the Peace Process has its own ups and downs. After all the success of the entire process is dependent on the sincerity of the two parties. Perhaps the most troublesome aspect of the CFA was the secrecy in which it was formulated and signed even without the knowledge of the members of the then Cabinet. Only a few members of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's inner circle were aware of the signing of the CFA. Such dealings, of course, harmed the integrity and credibility of the CFA. But once in force, it brought to halt a conflict which lasted for seventeen years at a cost of 64,000 lives. The idea, here is not peace at any cost, rather the CFA had a formula for a win-win solution, it intended to ease hardships faced by people in the North-East, facilitate reconciliation between the North and South and to give room to the LTTE to transform itself to a political group. The question is to what extent the CFA could deliver on its expectations. Even though the extremes of both sides would not like to accept it, the answer is clear. Though it could not live up to its full expectations, the Ceasefire Agreement has transformed the Sri Lankan polity, both in the North and South. Freedom of movement allowed by article 2.10 of the Ceasefire Agreement is the impetus for economic revival of the North-East. The North-East, especially the LTTE controlled Wanni is lagging behind the rest of the country in socio-economic development. But the recent economic progress in the Wanni, though insignificant compared to the rest of the country, should be assessed against the backdrop of its ruined past prior to February, 2002. misery Those who travelled to the LTTE held Wanni before the Ceasefire Agreement and its immediate aftermath would remember the misery of the entire population. The only newly built concrete structures were LTTE Peace Secretariat and a few semi completed buildings, all built after the two parties agreed to an unofficial truce in December 2001. Of course, the CFA did not produce an economic miracle in the Wanni. But, it was the basis of the socio-economic progress in the North-East. Ask the International Committee of Red Cross about life on the lines before the Ceasefire Agreement: only 1,000 civilians were permitted to cross No Man's lands to travel to and from the Government controlled areas South of Omanthai (500 were allowed to enter and another 500 to leave the government controlled areas) Since the freedom of movement was established after the two parties agreed to cease hostilities, around 7,000-8,000 civilians and 200 -250 good cargo travel every day via the entry point at Omanthai. 10,000 -12,000 civilians travel between the Wanni and the government controlled Jaffna peninsula. (statistics by the ICRC) Free movement Free movement of goods to the Wanni and the Jaffna peninsula - with the exception of non-military arms, ammunition, explosives, remote control devices, barbed wire, binoculars/telescopes, compasses and pen torch batteries- helped people to rebuild their lives in the war-torn North-East, an area which was subjected to severe economic embargoes for over a decade. Equally important, the freedom of movement helped ease the old wounds of ethnic conflict and increased interaction between the North and the South thus facilitating a reconciliation process. One serious humanitarian concern of the war is over 800,000 people who were forced to flee their habitats. And, sometimes achievements on easing greater human miseries like that could be undermined by relatively insignificant issues propped up by propaganda. The Ceasefire Agreement helped nearly half of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return to their villages. The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR has this to say: "Between early 2002 and June 2004, nearly 50 per cent (370,000) of IDPs have spontaneously returned to their home areas in the North and East of the country" "Although UNHCR maintained that conditions are not yet conducive for a large scale voluntary repatriation, it remains hopeful that refugees and IDPs will find a place to call home". Though the UNHCR statement blended optimism with gloom, the progress in the resettlement of the IDPs should be assessed in the backdrop of destruction and mass displacement which took place not so long ago. According to the UNHCR statistical summary as of February 28 this year, out of the total number of 882,601 IDPs and refugees, 382,093 IDPs plus 17,056 refugees in India and other countries have returned to their villages. (There are still 352,374 IDPs and 130,962 Sri Lankan refugees in India and abroad) Controversy This is itself an achievement. But what was pushed to the fore by the LTTE, which later dominated the headlines of newspapers was the controversy over the High Security Zones. Indeed, the High Security Zones have uprooted a sizable amount of people, but the HSZ are also a politico-military issue propped up by the LTTE. The CFA was not flawless, one serious mistake being the disarmament of the non-LTTE Tamil political activists under article 1.8 of the agreement. Whatever the reasons for such a move it had fatal consequences, which cost over hundred lives of political activists of the EPDP, EPRLF (Varathan group) and PLOTE. Albeit its mistakes, the CFA brought a protracted conflict to a halt. Dividends of peace, however do not confine to the fact that body bags no more come to the South. If the death toll during the ethnic conflict is estimated at 65,000- nearly half of them civilians and the majority aged between 20 to 35 - and the average age of those who died is taken as 30, the loss of life amounts to 1.8 million life years. Seventeen thousand four hundred twenty three (17,423) security forces personnel had been killed and another 3,736 are missing in action. The LTTE puts its death toll at 17,648 cadres. A revised research report on the "Economic, Socio-political and Human costs of the war in Sri Lanka," published by the National Peace Council and the Marga Institute estimates the economic costs of the war to be a staggering 2,451 billion rupees. The report breaks up the total cost in to sub categories such as direct expenditure on defence by the Government which amounts 372.78 billion rupees, additional spending on public order and safety (63.12 billion rupees),Government expenditure on needs of refugees and displaced (53 billion), damage to infrastructure and property (230.9 billion), loss of tourism and foreign investment (366 billion), loss of economic output in the North-East (413 billion) and loss of income due to migration of professionals (191.37 billion) and defence expenditure by the LTTE which is estimated at least 20 per cent of the Government's defence spending i.e at least 74.55 billion rupees. According to the report, two-thirds of total economic cost was born by the North and East. Colossal destruction It is understandable that such a colossal destruction and its ramifications cannot be undone in a matter of months. Add to insult to injury, reconstruction and rehabilitation in the North-East has been further delayed by the deadlock in the peace talks.Soon after LTTE's unilateral suspension of the peace talks, it also walked away from the Sub Committee on Immediate Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Needs in the North-East (SIHRN). Even though the LTTE complained that SIHRN failed to deliver on its expectations, due to the absence of political clout, they said, suspension of sittings of the sub committee took place only a few weeks after the then Peace Secretariat Chief Bernard Goonetilleke met LTTE political chief S. P. Thamilselvan to approve the implementation of five rehabilitation projects including a resettlement in the Mannar District, reconstruction of Mullaitivu-Mankulam road etc. Ten more projects were approved subject to further clarification by the SIHRN chief. Suspension of SIHRN LTTE's suspension of SIHRN, along with the suspension of peace talks was done tit for tat for the then Government decision to leave out the LTTE at the Washington pre-donor meeting. The suspension however stalled most of the rehabilitation activities in the North-East. Another opening for the confidence building and resumption of peace talks has emerged with the proposed joint mechanism to coordinate the post-tsunami reconstruction in the North-East. Albeit the differences between the two parties, the President as well as the LTTE had underlined the importance of the joint mechanism to rebuild the tsunami hit North-East coast; it is also a step forward to resume deadlocked peace talks. The Government seems to be concerned over finalising an agreement on the joint mechanism before the donor summit in Kandy on May 17 and 18. So the coming weeks will be important to the future of the peace process. |
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