Social Democracy could be overall winner in France

The demise of former Russian President Boris Yeltin, occurring in tandem with a tense presidential electoral contest in France, helps focus on some of the most crucial issues to confront Western polities in the post-Soviet years.

Mixed assessments, are reportedly being made of Yeltsin's contribution to Russia's political evolution but clear-cut pronouncements in this regard would be impossible as long as the world continues to grapple with the issue of whether it is gaining or losing as a result of opting for political and economic liberalization.

For, it was Yeltsin who propelled the Russian Federation in the direction of capitalist or market-led growth and speeded-up the collapse of the communist system in what was formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

If the consequences flowing from these cataclysmic political developments are seen largely as good and acceptable, then, Yeltsin would need to be regarded as possessing heroic stature. If a contrary assessment is made, Yeltsin would be needed to be seen as a negative influence in post-Soviet politics.

From what could be gathered, Russian society has by no means made-up its mind on these questions. Accordingly, restraint would need to be exercised in penning laudatory epitaphs for the late Russian leader.

True, he was instrumental in ending a system which is commonly seen as repressive, but the question to be asked is whether the populations of the former USSR are seeing better times now. Are these publics truly free of want and material deprivation?

Russia is enjoying a degree of political stability under President Vladimir Putin but it has been dogged by economic and social tensions.

There is a great deal of organised crime in Russia, for instance, and some vulnerable groups, such as the old and working people, are said to be harping with nostalgia on the Soviet days when almost everyone's basic material needs were fulfilled.

What is, of course, implied in these observations is that economic want has by no means been wiped out by economic liberalization and capitalist-led growth. Besides, separatist ethnic violence has been erupting in the form of the bloody rebellion in Chechnya. An unambiguous pronouncement on Yeltsin's achievement as President, therefore, becomes a difficult undertaking.

Fortunately, the Western conscience has been continuously grappling with these questions and the best proof of this at the moment is the French Presidential poll where the conservative right in the form of a former Interior Minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, and a Socialist contender, Segolene Royal, are locked in a keen tussle for election.

Second round results in the poll are expected by May 6 and opinion polls are showing Royal trailing Sarkozy by a slender margin. This in effect means that French opinion is by no means overwhelmingly unanimous in its preference for either candidate and their political and economic programmes for the country. In other words, opinion is sharply and almost evenly divided on their plans for France.

This is a healthy state of affairs because we have the evidence here that the core issues at the heart of economic and political liberalization are being hotly debated by the French. Needless to say, this is integral to the development of participatory governance.

In contrast to Sankozy's initial, tough law and order approach, Royal has been stressing the need for an alleviation of social conditions as a means to improving the country's economic fortunes.

At the moment, France's unemployment rate is considerably high and the economy is seen as stagnant. Sarkozy has also made considerable inroads into what may be considered the "white" vote by propagating the policy platform of far right candidate Le Pen, who is now out of the presidential race.

Even if Royal loses narrowly, this would not take away from the fact that a considerable segment of French opinion is for a reforming of the free enterprise system and the strategy of capitalist-led growth which could not be expected to be sensitive to the needs of disadvantaged social groups.

In the days ahead both Sarkozy and Royal would be battling for "middle-ground" voters or those who advocate a mixed economy. These are the votes of mainly centrist Presidential candidate Francois Bayrou, who had to bow out of the race after the first round.

While these "middle ground" voters could be expected to be natural allies of Royal, the possibility of some of them voting for Sarkozy cannot be ruled out in the event of the latter watering-down his rightist agenda to accommodate them.

All in all, whoever emerges victorious, Social Democracy and its vision of a mixed economy, could be considered the overall winner of the French Presidential contest. This would be proof that the average French voter is far from ready to give Laissez Faire capitalism an unreserved endorsement.

A parallel process, of course, is already on in Latin America. Thus is the 'middle path' a clear winner.

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