Palestinian polity at a crossroad

Whither the Palestinian people? This is the prime question posed by the bloody, convulsive events currently breaking out in the Gaza strip of Palestine.

Following a week of murderous violence, which claimed more than 100 lives, the Hamas faction is in control militarily in the Gaza strip, effectively confining the political and military influence of the Fatah faction of President Mahmoud Abbas to the West Bank.

Divided

Thus have the Palestinian people come to be divided in the middle-some owing their allegiance to Hamas, considered the more militant and "extremist" by the West, and the others to Abbas' Fatah faction, considered "moderate", by the West and the virtual law enforcement arm of the Palestinian Authority.

Compounding this fundamental division is the geographical separation of the two regions in question, conjuring the spectre of two hostile state entities claiming to represent a single people.

Election

Currently, President Abbas enjoys the advantage of being backed by the West, politically and financially. In fact, both the US and the EU have resumed financial assistance to the Abbas - controlled Palestinian Authority, following months of an aid freeze which came in the wake of the election of a Hamas-dominated government in the Palestinian areas more than an year ago. Thus will the West Bank be strengthened economically and politically while the Gaza faces the prospect of international isolation and increasing economic deprivation.

Such a situation is pregnant with negative possibilities. Increasing material hardships in the Gaza would only encourage political extremism among the populace and help expand the support base of the more radical elements in the Hamas faction. The possibility that the Hamas political leadership is not entirely in control of its armed formations, compounds these emerging perils.

As long as the Haniyeh - dominated political leadership was in control of the armed formations, the possibility existed of the Hamas faction traversing a relatively moderate course in Palestinian politics.

With the armed groups taking increasing control over the faction, the chances are that Hamas would follow a more extremist course in politics, deepening the division between Hamas and Fatah, thus making the Gaza - West Bank fissure geographically and politically permanent.

As to whether the Palestinian polity could be brought together again would depend greatly on how effectively Western-backed President Abbas heals this rift in Palestinian society and arrives at an accommodation with the Hamas faction. In other words, a government of national unity should be his foremost priority.

Economic embargo

On the other hand, the West, led by the US, would need to realise that it has erred fatally by alienating the Haniyeh administration. It is clear that an economic embargo on such a government would only strengthen the hands of the hardliners in Hamas. Rather than weaken political extremism, such embargoes would only have the effect of aggravating and strengthening these tendencies.

Accordingly, a re-think on the part of the West on its Middle East policy is urgently needed.

If the West is seeking to push forward the peace process it would need to encourage the re-formation of a national unity government in Palestine. Such an administration would not only need to be strengthened in economic terms but increasingly engaged by the West politically.

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