How will Prabhakaran resolve power struggle?

Velupillai Prabhakaran's future as the so-called 'supremo' of the LTTE will depend mainly on how successful he would resolve the executive power struggle and boost the morale of his cadres.

With the Sri Lanka Air Force fighter jets regularly taking successful enemy targets in the North, the LTTE cadres manning the Forward Defense Lines (FDLs) in the Tiger-held areas in the North are struggling for survival.

Intelligence sources said the morale of those cadres is at a low ebb. Various strategies implemented by the LTTE leadership as morale boosters have been a failure.

The number of the LTTE deserters is increasing daily and Prabhakaran has warned his top 'commanders' to take immediate action to restraint their trained cadres.

However, Prabhakaran's plans to promote his Western-educated son Charles Anthony too has become a threat to the unity of the LTTE top brass.

Air Force fighter jets, for the third successive day bombed a location where a leadership meeting of the LTTE was in progress in Mullaitivu inflicting large scale death and destruction on the outfit. Security sources said the pilots had observed a massive inferno following the bombings of the building network which had also served as an ammunition dump. The precise target was destroyed while the LTTE high rankers were gathered in, according to Military spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara.

Mig27 Fighter jets and Kafir carried out the air strike targeting the key Tiger position in Vishvamadu in the Tiger stronghold of Mullaitivu around 12.00 p.m on Friday.

Sources added that the target was accurate and precise according to the ground intelligence and air based surveillance. He said the air strike was carried out while the LTTE leaders were gathered at a meeting.

Army Commander Lt. General Sarath Fonseka	Navy Commander Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda

This was a location where key LTTE leaders met regularly to discuss military strategy. Air Force fighters too have confirmed that the aim was accurate and a huge fire ball was observed. The Vishvamadu base was one of the key LTTE bases in the North.

With the loss many of their territories to the Security Forces in the wake of humanitarian operations conducted by the Security Forces, the LTTE is once again making attempts to raise their ugly heads in Jaffna peninsula. There is no argument that the Tiger outfit which has faced severe blows with the loss of territory in the East and also some areas of Mannar, is now desperately in need to have control over population, but not on territory.

This situation has arisen as a large number of civilians living in the Wanni are fleeing LTTE held areas as they no longer can tolerate harassment by the Tiger outfit.

According to Security Forces' estimates, on the information received from the civilians fleeing the Wanni, the population in the Wanni has been reduced to 250,000 from 300,000 though the LTTE claims that over 400,000 people are living in the Wanni. Many parts of the Wanni have become desolate with people leaving Wanni unable to bear the harassment of the LTTE. A similar situation was reported prior to the operation conducted by the Security Forces to liberate the areas in the south of Mannar as statistics claimed that 6,000 people were living in the area. But in reality Security Forces found only a maximum 3,000 population in Silavathura and Arippu areas. In fact, a similar type of situation can be expected in the Wanni too as only 30 per cent of people leaving Wanni are returning to the Wanni, according to Security Forces manning the entry/exit points in the Wanni.

This situation has prompted the LTTE to impose restrictions on civilian movements, specially for families to leave Wanni as they are confronted with a severe shortage of manpower in the Wanni sector.

On the other hand, the LTTE too is not in a position to go for large scale military offensives in the Wanni as they lack public support in the Wanni with a dwindling number of fighting cadres available.

Military intelligence

According to military intelligence, the Tiger outfit has a strength of 3,000 fighting cadres in the Wanni front under the leadership of Bhanu while another 3,000 are available in Mullaitivu sector.

The strength of the LTTE in the Jaffna sector is around 1,800 under the leadership of Theepan. The Sea Tiger cadre strength is estimated at 1,500, according to intelligence sources. Therefore, the LTTE leadership is now concentrating more on the Jaffna peninsula where normality is being restored with the streamlining of food supplies by the Essential Services Commissioner, as they (Tigers) no longer can reach the people in the Eastern province.

The Tiger outfit is well aware that assistance from the Jaffna population will be very unlikely as people are more bent towards a peaceful situation rather than a conflict situation that will be created if the LTTE is allowed to operate in the peninsula. In this context the closure of the A-9 road at Muhamalai, with the escalation of hostilities on August 11 last year has played a vital role to maintain law and order in the peninsula without any interference from the LTTE.

However, the incidents unfolding in the peninsula for the past few weeks indicate that the LTTE is making desperate attempts to induct their cadres into the peninsula to destabilise normal life. The recoveries made by the Security Forces in the peninsula indicate that the LTTE is preparing for a major offensive concentrating on the Jaffna FDLs in Muhamalai, Nagarkovil and Kilali.

But, it is very unlikely the LTTE is having enough strength to confront the Security Forces Nagarkovil, Muhamalai and Kilali sector as they have only about 1,800 fighting cadres against Army Divisions placed there in the peninsula to face any offensive operation by the LTTE. Therefore, much concentration is focused by the LTTE on Jaffna islands as they think such infiltration will definitely help them to destabilise the Jaffna peninsula.

In August last year, the LTTE in their unsuccessful 72 hour operation to capture Jaffna had landed in Kayts islands, Kilali and Thanankilappu with the objective of diverting the attention of the Security Forces and to launch a major assault on FDLs in Muhamalai, Kilali and Nagarkovil.

The LTTE had prepared for months to launch a massive misinformation campaign against the Naval troops operating in Kayts islands over the alleged killing of civilians.

But Security Forces faced this situation, effectively defeating the Tiger plans and also the misinformation campaign launched with the objective of capturing Jaffna peninsula.

The events unfolded in the peninsula very clearly indicate that the LTTE has not given up their hopes to recapture Jaffna as they think Tamil homeland without Jaffna like a king without a crown.

But many of the Tiger plans went up in smoke as the Security Forces receive extensive support from the civilians as they informed about Tiger movements, without allowing them to be fully established in the peninsula. On September 19, Naval troops on information received from civilian sources, recovered a claymore mine concealed inside the ceiling of an abandoned house in Pungudutivu Island in Jaffna. The claymore mine had been planted targeting Security Forces personnel who conduct search operations to ensure the safety of the civilian population living on the island.

On another occasion, Naval troops recovered hidden arms and ammunition at Ambiganagar and Saramanai in Jaffna on September 9. The Security Forces also received civilian information in the Gurunagar area to uncover a 7 kg claymore mine, 16 LTTE code sheets and three suicide kits on September 15. Eight hand grenades, three T-56 assault rifles and 420 T-56 ammunition were also recovered during this search operations. The items detected around 1.30 p.m. at Ambiganagar, were hidden in a Palmyrah grove and consisted of three AK 400 hand grenades, 12 9mm micro pistol ammunition and one grenade pouch. These recoveries by the Security Forces clearly indicate that they are now engaged in a process of stocking arms and ammunition needed for any offensive operation to capture Jaffna.

The objective of the LTTE was made obvious with the claymore mine attack by the LTTE targeting a troop movement in Manthikai in Point Pedro on September 14 at 9.10 p.m. Two soldiers were killed and seven others sustained injuries due to the claymore mine explosion. Such acts were directly aimed at restricting Security Forces movements within the Jaffna peninsula.

The items recovered by the troops in many parts of the Jaffna peninsula also indicate that a group of nearly 20 Tiger cadres have infiltrated the peninsula on rookie missions. They are well equipped with Global Positioning Systems and pathfinders to feed the locations of military camps and gun positions.

As these developments are going on Security Forces last week alerted the public about the clandestine activities of a few Jaffna peninsula-based pockets of LTTE terrorists and their sympathisers, with the public servants in Jaffna threatened by the LTTE.

In the wake of intense LTTE activities to destabilize the Jaffna peninsula, Security Forces have increased their patrols in the area to neutralise any destructive attempt by terrorist elements to cripple normality.

Troops operating in the Jaffna FDLs for the past few months conducted continued search and clear operations ahead of the FDLs in Muhamalai, Eluthumadduval, Kilali and Nagarkovil to neutralise Tiger activities. During these operations troops have inflicted heavy damage on the LTTE. On September 2, troops operating on the Muhamalai front killed one LTTE terrorist engaged in a rookie mission. The troops also destroyed one Tiger bunker ahead of the Muhamalai FDL.

On September 8, troops killed four Tiger terrorists after destroying four of their bunkers.

Ten Tiger cadres were killed in an hour long battle along the Kilali, Eluthumadduval, Nagarkovil and Muhamalai fronts.

The latest battle was reported this Wednesday with troops from the 552 Brigade moving ahead of the Eluthumadduval FDL to destroy a four strong bunker line, as the LTTE continued to fire at the Security Forces using these bunkers.

Troops faced heavy resistance from the LTTE as troops captured the four bunkers. Around 20 troops sustained injuries as the LTTE directed 152 mm artillery rounds towards the troops.

However, troops returned to the FDL after destroying the four Tiger bunkers.

Therefore, it is now clear that the LTTE which has already faced severe blows at the hands of the Security Forces are heading towards another offensive to boost their morale as they are fast losing public support for their illusionary struggle for Tamil Eelam.

Service extensions to Army and Navy Commanders

Following the convincing victories of the ground troops and Naval troops, Army Commander Lt. General Sarath Fonseka and Navy Commander Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda have been granted service extensions by President Mahinda Rajapaksa on Wednesday. Both the Commanders have been granted one-year service extensions. The service extension given to Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka comes into effect from December 17, 2007. This is the third extension given to Army Commander Lt. General Fonseka after he assumed the command of the Sri Lanka Army on December 6, 2004.

A four-year tenure is entitled to both the Navy and the Army Commanders. Once they are appointed as Commanders they are entitled to extensions as heads of department despite reaching retirement age. It is common practice to inform about their extensions a few months prior to the completion of their extended service.

Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda is due to reach 55 years in November and his extension will come into effect in November. Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka, a battle-hardened infantryman from the Sinha Regiment of the Sri Lanka Army assumed the command of the Army on December 6, 2005. He was behind the process of turning North-East battles to a victorious path, giving leadership in all battles commencing from Mavil Aru battle to Thoppigala to liberate the East and also to foil Tiger attempts to capture Jaffna. The most recent battle he led was to liberate Silavathura from the LTTE grip.

His miraculous survival after the LTTE suicide attack inside the Army Headquarters, on April 25, 2006 was one of the major defeats faced by the LTTE as it was the turning point in the Government stance on the LTTE. He was enlisted to the Army on February 5, 1970. He was commissioned as a 2nd Lieutenant in the first Battalion of the Sri Lanka Sinha Regiment on June 1, 1971.

Lt. General Fonseka as a professional soldier, during his career spanning over 30 years, has followed the Staff College course in Bangladesh, Company Commanders Course, Pakistan, Battalion Support Weapons Course in India, Commando Officers Course, India, Infantry Officers Advanced Course (USA) and Royal College of Defence Studies in UK. He has also attended several overseas seminars including the Pacific Armies Management Seminar in Japan, Geneva, Iran, India and UK. Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, who was appointed as the 15th Commander of the Navy by President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga assumed the command of the Navy on September 01, 2005. In the 57- year history of the Sri Lanka Navy, Vice Admiral Karannagoda is the only officer to be considered to the highest seat of the commander of the Navy, straight from a Naval Area Commander. After assuming the command of the Navy, he changed the modus operandi of the Naval operation by increasing Naval capabilities for deep sea operations against LTTE arms smuggling.

This ensured the success of the Naval operations against the LTTE during the past two years with the destruction of over eight LTTE ships within the past one year.

The biggest victory in the history of the Navy was recorded last week with three LTTE ships destroyed within 24 hours in the sea some 1,400 Km away from Dondra Head. Karannagoda is the first Naval officer to be conferred with two Masters Degrees - Masters in Business Administration and Defence Studies. He is also a member of the Royal Institute of Navigation and the Nautical Institute of the United Kingdom.