Tactical planning for Bhutto's return

by M Ilyas Khan

By announcing her return to the country a month in advance, Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto seems to be taking one last chance with the government.

For a year she has been talking to the country's military ruler, President Pervez Musharraf, to work out a formula for free and fair elections and the return of democracy to the country.

But talks have stalled.

On Friday (14), her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) announced that she would return to the country on 18 October, deal or no deal.

Corruption charges

Ms Bhutto left the country in April 1999 when a number of corruption cases were filed against her by Nawaz Sharif's government.

She has never been convicted in any of those cases, which she says were politically motivated and legally untenable.

Mr Sharif's government was toppled by Gen Musharraf in a coup in October 1999, and he was sent into forced exile to Saudi Arabia.

Eight years on and Gen Musharraf is struggling to maintain his grip on a country that is increasingly torn by suicide bombings, the dwindling morale of the army in the border region, and increasing demands for democracy and the rule of law.

Meanwhile, his main political ally, the PML-Q party, has failed to generate enough popular support for his policies.

In fact, it is seen to have been too soft on the country's powerful religious lobby. Against this backdrop, Ms Bhutto's announcement is significant in a number of ways.

First, she has announced that she will land in Karachi, the capital of her native Sindh province.

This is likely to put pressure on the Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), a regional ally of Gen Musharraf that controls the city.

MQM has had strained, sometimes violent, relations with Ms Bhutto's PPP.

In May, it was accused by opposition parties of inciting the riots that prevented the then suspended chief justice from visiting Karachi.

More than 30 people died in those riots.

More recently, a large number of MQM workers converged on the Sindh High Court, preventing it from holding a hearing into the 12 May incident.

The PPP leaders, with their stronghold in Sindh and considerable support in Karachi, say that a campaign by Ms Bhutto is likely to force the MQM to restrict what they call its "extra-political activities".

Gathering support

The PPP leadership has ample time to mobilise supporters, make arrangements for her return and to build up the tempo for national elections due later this year or early next year.

The PPP may have learned a lesson from Mr Sharif's PMLN party, which failed to mobilise its cadres in sufficient numbers for Mr Sharif's attempted return to the country last Monday.

Mr Sharif was arrested and sent back into exile.

Gen Musharraf also has sufficient time to rethink a deal which Ms Bhutto says she still wants.

Gen Musharraf, whose term as president and army chief ends in November, wants to continue in both offices for another term.

His allies in the US administration also want him in control, but think he should make a power sharing arrangement with the secular PPP, which is more popular than the PML-Q.

On its part, the PPP insists he must quit as head of the army.

It also wants to get rid of a constitutional clause that gives the president discretionary powers to dissolve assemblies and governments - a condition Gen Musharraf will find even harder to accept if he quits the army.

And the PPP wants to reverse a constitutional amendment that bars prime ministerial candidates from seeking more than two terms in office.

Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif have each been prime minister twice.

In addition, the PPP wants electoral reform and the withdrawal of corruption cases against Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif.

The high point in the power-sharing talks came in July when Gen Musharraf made an unofficial trip to the United Arab Emirates and met Ms Bhutto in Abu Dhabi.

However, further talks held between her and top presidential aides last month in London were deadlocked on the details and timing of some issues.

Last week, the same Musharraf aides met her again in Dubai, after which she said she was "ready" for another meeting with Gen Musharraf. That meeting has never materialised.

Decision time

Gen Musharraf is apparently in two minds.

The deal that the PPP has offered him is likely to make his position weak and inconsequential.

The PML-Q has said it will elect him as president and head of the army, but that entails legal complications he cannot hope to avoid given an increasingly independent judiciary and his own rapidly falling popularity.

While his talks with the PPP have divided the opposition, it can close its ranks once Gen Musharraf is nominated as a candidate.

As the PPP campaign picks up in coming weeks, he will be under increasing pressure to make a choice.

"The ball is now in General Musharraf's court," Ms Bhutto told a Pakistani TV channel on Friday.

"He can either go the way of democracy, or go for emergency or martial law."

BBC