When will world population reach 10 billion mark?

What will the world population be in about another four decades time? Do you think it'll top the 10 billion mark? Well, no one can predict what the exact number will be, but going by the present statistics and various other factors that affect the increase or decrease of the population in the world, different estimates have been given.

As World Population Day falls on July 11, that's at the end of this week, we decided to focus your attention towards this important issue which has a strong impact on all our lives. When world population figures change, especially recording a sharp overall increase or a sharp decline in numbers in certain countries or areas, we need to be alert. because we are all part of this changing population.

So, let's enlighten ourselves about what exactly it means and find out how population projections are arrived at...When you hear the term 'world population' you may wonder what it means. Well, this term commonly refers to the total number of humans living on Planet Earth, at a time. Accordingly by May 31 this year, the Earth's population stood at 6,792,467,727 people. And according to population projections, the world population will continue to grow until around 2050.It is difficult to predict the future population accurately, but the United Nations and the US Census Bureau have given these statistics.

However, the estimates given by these two sources differ. According to a new US Census Bureau projection the world population will go beyond 9.5 billion by 2050.

Other projections are that the world population will eventually crest early, as around 2050, at under 9 billion or 10 to 11 billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates.

In the past...

According to recorded data, the population was only around 200 million in AD 1. It took 1,400 years before it doubled. But, after AD 1,400, the population had increased rapidly reaching 900 million in 1,800 and over 1,600 million by 1900. Then in just another three decades (1930) it had gone over the 2,000 million mark. And in another three decades (1960) the world population had increased by over a million topping 3,000 million. After that, it had increased by about another one million in just 15 years (1975). This rapidly increasing growth in population, which is referred to as the `population explosion' is still continuing.Most are of the view that this rapidly growing population, especially in African countries where it's doubling every 20 years, will lead to overcrowding and a scarcity of resources: food and water.

World Population Day

The World Population Day was inaugurated in 1988 by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to mark July 11, 1987, when the world's population hit five billion.

The Day seeks to focus attention on the urgency and importance of population issues, particularly in the context of overall development plans and programmes, and the need to find solutions for these issues.

In 2000, world population stood at 6.06 billion, and was growing by 78 million a year. The United Nations estimates there will be between 7.3 billion and 10.7 billion people in 2050, with 8.9 billion the most likely projection.

In the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its population in human history due to lessening of the mortality rate in many countries as a result of medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.

There is currently no estimation on the exact day the world's population surpassed both the 1 and 2 billion marks. The day of 3 and 4 billion were not officially celebrated, but the International Database of the U.S. Census Bureau places them around July 1959, and April 1974.

The United Nations did determine, and celebrate, the "Day of 5 billion" (July 11, 1987), and the "Day of 6 billion" (October 12, 1999).

The U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs division, currently estimated that the world reached 6 billion on April 21, 1999 (several months earlier than the official UN day).

The "Day of 7 billion" has been targeted by the Census Bureau to be in February 2012.

Sri Lanka's population facts

Sri Lanka's population is an important factor that lends a better understanding of the geography of Sri Lanka.

* During the early nineteenth century, the population of Sri Lanka was small and concentrated in the South-western part of the island and in the Jaffna peninsula in the North.

* The first official census, conducted by the British in 1871, recorded a total population of 2.8 million. Between then and the 1980s, the population increased sixfold.

* The period of fastest growth was the decade after Independence, when the annual rate of increase was 2.8 per cent. The official total in the 1981 census was 14,846,750, and some projections suggested a total of 18 million by 1991 and between 20 and 21 million by 2001.

*As in South Asia as a whole - and in contrast to global patterns.Sri Lankan males outnumbered females in the mid-1980s.

For every 100 female births registered there were 104 males.

* In the past, the gender ratio of the general population was even more unequal - 113 men to 100 women in 1941.

* Since 1963, the average female life expectancy has increased by seven years, while male life expectancy has risen by three years.

The last total population of Sri Lanka is estimated to be 20,926,315.

* The population growth rate of Sri Lanka is 0.982%. How ever, the rate of population growth is higher in the Southwestern and Northeastern part of the country.

* The estimated birth rate is 17 births/1,000 populations while the death rate is 6.01 deaths/1,000 populations. 1.16 migrants/1,000 populations is the net migration rate of Sri Lanka which is also an important factor affecting Sri Lanka's population.

* The maximum life expectancy rate is 74.8 years.

* The total rate of infant mortality in Sri Lanka is 19.45 deaths/1,000 populations.

People of Sri Lanka

The dominant inhabitants of Sri Lanka are Sinhalese that make up most of the population. The remaining part of the population consists of Sri Lanka Tamils and Indian Tamils.

Sri Lanka's population is one of the fast growing populations in the world.

Population of some countries:

China                      	   1,331,460,000
India                      	   1,165,550,000
United States               	     306,759,000
Indonesia                            230,512,000
Brazil                               191,375,000
Pakistan                             166,749,000
Russia                               141,841,000
Japan                                127,580,000
Germany                               82,062,200
France                                65,073,482
United Kingdom               	      61,612,300
Canada                                33,694,000
Sri Lanka                             20,238,000
New Zealand                            4,313,300
Maldives                                  309,000

(Most estimates updated last month)

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What is demography?

Demography is that branch of social science,which deals with the study of size,structure and distribution of populations,along with the spatial and temporal changes in them in response to birth,migration,aging and death.

Demographic analysis can be applied to whole societies or to groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion and ethnicity.

Data and methods

There are two methods of data collection: direct and indirect. Direct data come from vital statistics registries that track all births and deaths as well as certain changes in legal status such as marriage, divorce, and migration (registration of place of residence). In developed countries with good registration systems (such as the United States and much of Europe), registry statistics are the best method for estimating the number of births and deaths.

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What a census is

The census is the other common direct method of collecting demographic data. A census is usually conducted by a national government and attempts to enumerate every person in a country. However, in contrast to vital statistics data, which are typically collected continuously and summarised on an annual basis, censuses typically occur only every 10 years or so, and thus are not usually the best source of data on births and deaths. Analyses are conducted after a census to estimate how much over or under counting took place. Censuses do more than just count people. They typically collect information about families or households, as well as about such individual characteristics as age, sex, marital status, literacy/education, employment status and occupation, and geographical location. They may also collect data on migration (or place of birth or of previous residence), language, religion, nationality (or ethnicity or race), and citizenship. In countries in which the vital registration system may be incomplete, the censuses are also used as a direct source of information about fertility and mortality; for example the censuses of the People's Republic of China gather information on births and deaths that occurred in the 18 months immediately preceding the census.

Indirect methods of collecting data are required in countries where full data are not available, such as is the case in much of the developing world.

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