Commodities post first drop in five years
Commodities posted the first annual drop in five years as supply
exceeded demand for corn to sugar to nickel and investors lost faith in
precious metals as a store of value amid signs that economies are
improving.
The Standard and Poor's GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 0.6
percent to settle at 632.29, capping a 2.2 percent decline this year.
Corn led the retreat with a 40 percent plunge, followed by silver and
gold. Commodity-fund investments fell by a record $88 billion to $332
billion in the 11 months ended November 30, Barclays Plc estimated.
As prices more than doubled in the past decade spurred miners and
farmers to boost production at a time when China's economic growth
slowed, Citigroup Inc. sources said the "super cycle" of gains has
ended.
Copper to wheat to cocoa entered bear markets last year as investors
shifted money to equities. Gold and silver posted the biggest declines
since 1981 as an economic rebound prompted the Federal Reserve to cut
stimulus.
"Perceptions of improving supply and supply overhangs pressured
commodities," said a senior commodity strategist Jeremy Baker, who helps
oversee about $600 million at Harcourt Investment Consulting AG in
Zurich.
"There was concern about China's growth," he said.
The 2013 decline in the GSCI gauge compares with a 20 percent gain
for the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities and a 3.5 percent
increase for the Bloomberg US Dollar Index, a measure against 10 major
currencies.
The Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index dropped 3.1 percent.
Corn posted the biggest slump in a half century as the US harvest,
the world's biggest, climbed to a record 355.3 million metric tons,
rebounding 30 percent from the corresponding season when crops were hurt
by the most-severe drought since the 1930s, according to the US
Department of Agriculture.
International Sugar Organisation sources said that global output will
exceed demand by 4.73 million tons in the 2013-14 season that started in
October 2013 in most countries, the fourth straight surplus.
The London Metal's Exchange six main products declined this year.
Nickel, which had the biggest drop at 19 percent, had a surplus of
149,000 tons, Barclays estimated.
Zinc fell 1.2 percent last year, the smallest decline among the base
metals. Economic expansion in China, the biggest user of everything from
copper to soybeans, slowed every year since 2011. Economists surveyed by
Bloomberg News expect growth of 7.5 percent this year, down from 7.6
percent last year and the least since 1990.
The International Monetary Fund estimated in October that emerging
markets will expand 4.5 percent in 1023, down from a projection of 5.6
percent made a year earlier.
"The biggest factor has been emerging-market growth, and that it has
been weaker than expected has weighed on commodities," said Nic Johnson,
who helps manage $30 billion of commodity assets at Pacific Investment
Management Co. in Newport Beach, California.
"Developed-market growth will support prices of some commodities," he
said.
Global economic growth will accelerate to 3.6 percent in 2014, from
2.9 percent this year, according to the IMF. Managing Director for the
fund, Christine Lagarde said recently that the group is raising its
outlook for the US economy. December 18 the Fed cut on the pace of its
monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion.
Gold marked its first annual drop in 13 years with a 28 percent slide
and silver slumped 36 percent as Central Bank stimulus measures failed
to boost inflation. US consumer prices were unchanged in November after
a 0.1 percent drop the previous month, according to December 17 data
from the Labour Department.
Gold was down from a record $1,921.15 in September 2011.
Analysts, traders and investors surveyed by Bloomberg in December
2013 predicted metals and crop prices will rebound this year. Copper
will rise to as high as $7,836 a ton, the median estimate showed.
Platinum will reach $1,650 an ounce, compared with $1,371 now and
corn will increase to $5.225 a bushel from $4.22 today.
"Gold had a horrible year, and there are still no reasons for the
story to change," said Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion
as the New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities
Corp.
"Economies are doing better, and interest rates are going higher. I
think industrial metals will do better as sections of the world are
improving," he said.
Bloomberg
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