Cleaning the Augean stables post-Mahinda

by Amitava Mukherjee

With the defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa's United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) in the just-concluded parliamentary election, not only is the island nation likely to go through a political overhaul but its strategic implications would also influence the course of events in parts of South Asia.

People waiting to cast their vote last Monday. Pic: Dushmantha Mayadunne

The United National Party (UNP)-led United National Front (UNF) has come out victorious in this all important election.

On the eve of the election, Rajapaksa was certain that the UPFA, of which his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) was a major partner, would bag up to 117 seats, a clear majority in the 225-strong parliament. On what basis he came to this conclusion is not clear. Perhaps he had hoped his chauvinistic charisma and the war hero image would wipe out the four per cent vote deficit he had suffered in the presidential election in January.

But he has been proved wrong and here lies the silver lining in Sri Lanka's socio-political ambiance observers were hoping for. True, unlike the presidential election, the parliamentary poll did not focus on personalities, still the difference in vote share between the UPFA and the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led UNF has remained wide enough, indicating that even the ethnic Sinhala majority, Rajapaksa's main electoral base, is now divided over supporting the former president.

Rajapaksa and his team of advisors, which included a majority of the leading lights of the SLFP - except President Maithripala Sirisena - should have realized that in the six months that have elapsed since the last election, Sirisena has not committed any grave mistake that would dent his credibility.

The president became a key factor in the parliamentary election with his announcement that he would not appoint Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister even if he and his UPFA won the poll. The reason was Rajapaksa's image of a violator of human rights, breakdown of rule of law during his tenure and grave corruption charges against his family and his coterie.

As the combination of Maithripala Sirisena and UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe could present a better alternative before the electorate, Rajapaksa's chances receded further.

Although Sirisena has not yet been able to fulfill much of his electoral promises, yet he has publicly committed himself to root out corruption, build independent institutions and establish the rule of law, diminish the military's role, set in motion reconciliation and justice and put a stop to ethnic and ethnic and religious divisions.

Both Sirisena and Rajapaksa hail from the SLFP.

Except in some totally Tamil dominated districts, significant numbers of Sinhala votes have swayed towards the UNP in this election.

With Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, the strategic balance in South Asia, particularly in the Indian Ocean region, is likely to again shift in India's favour as the duo is expected to conduct a non-aligned foreign policy which may be quite opposite the openly pro-China line that Rajapaksa had adopted. Perhaps, at the 11th hour, Rajapaksa had realized that this pro-China foreign policy would cost him dearly and that is why the foreign policy part of UPFA's election manifesto had belatedly spoken of the need to improve relations with India.

There is now a distinct possibility that Rajapaksa will gradually fade away from Sri Lankan politics and he has only himself to blame for this. His China connection opened up allegations of corruption against him. In April, his brother Basil was arrested on corruption charges and warrants were issued against Gotabhaya, another brother. In June, Rajapaksa's wife was also interrogated by the administration's anti-corruption bureau.

On the other hand, Sirisena, Rajapaksa's principal bete noir, has left some healthy marks. By the 19th Amendment of the Constitution, he has limited the presidential tenure to a maximum of two terms and has also put restrictions on the president's power to dissolve parliament and call for snap polls at his will.

The same Amendment has also ended the absolute immunity of presidential actions from judicial scrutiny and has given the Prime Minister significant powers over appointing his Cabinet.

Sirisena has started moving away from an executive presidency to a Westminster-style of government. However, there are still large powers vested with the president and it will be interesting to watch how this dual system works.

But he has still a long way to go. He still belongs to the SLFP and must show courage to clean its Augean stables.

-IANS