Masterminding UNP's victory

by James Crabtree

As former president Mahinda Rajapaksa comes to terms with his second electoral defeat in eight months, many in Sri Lanka are also predicting what once seemed unthinkable: the final political demise of a leader who, until just a year ago, seemed to hold an iron grip on their country.

Rajapaksa hoped that Tuesday's (18) result would herald an unlikely comeback -allowing him to seize the office of prime minister while avenging his downfall at the hands of former party ally Maithripala Sirisena in presidential elections in January. Instead, his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) trailed in second behind the centre-right United National Party (UNP).

The result leaves the UNP's Ranil Wickremesinghe set to return as prime minister, having claimed victory on August 18 and form a coalition government in the island's 225-member parliament. Analysts say, Rajapaksa's departure - after a 10-year rule - could herald a new era, one in which Sri Lanka faces up to brutality of its past and distances itself from its once cosy relationship with Beijing.

Rajapaksa's loss stemmed in part from a slick and well-funded UNP campaign, aided by Lynton Crosby, the Australian political strategist who masterminded David Cameron's victory in Britain's general election this year.

Wickremesinghe's message bore many of the hallmarks of the low-key Crosby. Where once Rajapaksa's image dominated the media, this time blunt UNP adverts blanketed local newspapers, offering a stark choice between "good governance" and "jungle law" under the former president.

As in January's contest, Rajapaksa's appeals to the Sinhalese-speaking Buddhist majority failed to rack up enough votes to overcome more liberal-minded urban voters, alongside those backing Tamil parties, which won overwhelmingly in the island's north.

Analysts said, the result represented a rejection of the muscular nationalism of Rajapaksa's rule, borne of his role as victor in the civil war, in which the Tamil Tiger rebels were crushed in 2009.

"The hope must now be that a double defeat means Sri Lanka can move on and begin to solve some of the issues of postwar reconciliation and devolution of power that have been so difficult," says Alan Keenan of the International Crisis Group(ICG).

Making good on promises of better governance will be one early challenge, and one of direct interest to Rajapaksa himself, as he prepares for an array of corruption investigations. Opponents claim the Rajapaksa family-dominated regime siphoned away huge sums during its decade in power, including from the many Chinese-backed infrastructure schemes that symbolised Sri Lanka's postwar economic boom.

Instead, Wickremesinghe talks of a market-friendly economic policy, placing less emphasis on financial ties with China, and more on tempting global companies to use the south Asian island as a base for export-led manufacturing. He is likely to keep rebalancing Sri Lanka's international relations too, patching up ties with India and the west.

But Sirisena and Wickremesinghe must grapple with the problem of Sri Lanka's troubled history. Next month, the UN will publish a report examining allegations of atrocities during the civil war's end, in which up to 40,000 are estimated to have died.

"It is going to have detailed accounts of the most horrendous crimes, with dates and facts and names," says one government adviser. "It will be very hard to handle."

Wickremesinghe plans a new "credible domestic mechanism" into wartime abuses, similar to South Africa's post-apartheid truth and reconciliation commission. Measures to devolve more power to the Tamil-majority north are also expected.

Delivering these promises is sure to prove fraught.

Any investigation must be comprehensive enough to win over the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), as well as global human rights bodies and domestic Tamil parties, which tend to favour an international process. But the new government will want to avoid appearing to bend to global pressure, which would risk a backlash among the Sinhalese, who remain wary of both foreign meddling and resurgent ethnic separatism.

Rajapaksa's return to power having been thwarted, and his image of invincibility broken, he is now certain to face calls for accountability over his role as wartime commander-in-chief.

Sirisena has previously said his rival will be protected from international prosecution. But any domestic investigation will have to consider the former president's role, potentially stirring up old enmities among those who view him as both patriot and war hero.

- AFR