Tigers escalate violence to trap the international community

The ending of the defunct Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) on January 16 will set off a new train of events. It is a landmark decision with manifold implications in foreign and domestic politics.

This is bound to begin a whole new phase in Sri Lankan politics, putting and end, once and for all, to the futile politics of appeasement that did not produce the expected results, except granting a licence for the escalation of violence from day two (February 24, 2002) to Velupillai Prabhakaran.

Besides, the political map has changed so dramatically between February 22, 2002 and January 16, 2008 that no realistic political analyst will concede that the CFA has any capacity to hold the peace. Nor does it provide any basis for future peace negotiations. The CFA was based on the military situation prevailing at the time.

The then Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, admits this in his latest statement on the abrogation of the CFA. He says: "The UNP government entered into the ceasefire agreement with the LTTE in 2002 at a critical time when we had suffered severe military setbacks, and the economy was in shambles.

The LTTE had captured key military bases in the North and attacked vital economic targets such as the Katunayake Airport. The Colombo Port was not operational and the economy had recorded a negative growth. Under these circumstances, the main objective of the ceasefire was to find a negotiated settlement to the ongoing conflict and to safeguard the territorial integrity of the country."

The events unfolding since he signed the ill-fated CFA have proved, beyond doubt, that the instrument he chose to "find a negotiated settlement to the ongoing conflict and to safeguard the territorial integrity of the country" was one-sided, deeply flawed, unworkable and counter-productive.

The record shows that the CFA he thrust down the throat of the nation went against him and the nation. Though his initial intentions and expectations may have led him to believe that he was doing something good -- remember, paths to hell are paved with good intentions! -- he was let down first by the unrelenting violence of his co-signatory, Prabhakaran, and finally by the ungrateful Tiger stab that went deep into the back of Wickremesinghe on the eve of the last presidential election.

Misguided by his good intentions he, in fact, was selling the nation to the Vanni Pol Pot Vanni whose sole objective was to rip apart the territorial integrity of the nation. To argue that he scored a victory, or achieved a winning compromise is to confirm that he has no clear grasp of the political realities of the time.

As everyone knows, Vanni Pol Pot is the most intransigent, incorrigible and unreliable political partner for any deal. Not even the Tamils trust him. It was fatal for Wickremesinghe to place his trust on Vanni Pol Pot and he paid dearly for it. Not only that, his CFA pushed the nation into a bleak corner without any hope of escape.

The nation had never fallen into this paralyzed state since independence. With his defeatist mentality, backed by his childhood playmate, Chandrika Kumaratunga, a pseudo-intellectual, who failed to achieve anything for the nation, there was no hope of getting out of the CFA.

Of course, that was before President Mahinda Rajapaksa emerged from the south to take up the challenge. He has irrevocably changed the political map since the surrender on February 22, 2002 - a day of shame.

In between that day and January 16, 2008 Rajapaksa has not only reversed the trend of defeatism but has also advanced to regain the territory lost in the CFA. The main thrust of his leadership, backed by the JVP, is to restore the basic aspirations of the nation at large.

Not knowing how to react to the new forces, or to grasp the meaning of the new thrust, the foreign and local detractors are running around like hysterical banshees wailing stridently about the impending end of the world.

The world did not begin with the CFA nor is it going to end with the CFA. Blinded by their own incurable myopia they are now predicting the escalation of violence as if the nation was resting in a glorious haven of peace ever since the signing of the CFA.

The CFA has been useful to Prabhakaran to claim the political and territorial gains granted to him by Wickremesinghe.

But it is of no use for him to take the next violent step to Eelam.

Prabhakaran has always relied on the military solution. Agreements with India, international community, UN, leadership of Sri Lanka etc., have been only temporary stops for him to recover and resume his next round of violence. Besides, his Pol Potist regime can impose his personality cult and survive in the competitive field of politics only through violence.

After ethnically cleansing Jaffna of the Muslims, after massacring Muslims at prayer in Kathankudi, after abducting Tamil children from the arms of Tamil parents, after decimating the entire Tamil leadership, after decimating the cream of the UNP leadership, after killing more Tamils than all other forces put together, after assassinating Rajiv Gandhi, after establishing torture and terror camps to keep the dissident Tamils in total submission, after committing war crimes and crimes against humanity without, of course, Radhika Coomaraswamy and Jayantha Dhanapala taking a pro-active stand to send their R2P forces to protect the Tamils, his future depends not in adhering to any ceasfeire agreement but in escalating violence.

Despite this inner compulsion to live by the sword it is difficult to imagine violence going anything beyond what the nation has gone through already. Of course, the Tigers can intensify the violence. But this is done not to counter the military offensive and regain the position he held on February 22, 2002 -- the highest peak of his power.

At this critical stage it is done with the sole objective of manipulating the international community. They have openly vowed to strike terror, targeting civilians, with the clear objective of forcing the international community to take its side.

This was stated bluntly by the latest Tiger ideologue, K. Balakumaran. He told the 'National Television of Tamileelam (NTT): "The international community has been vacillating in taking decisive actions on Sri Lanka because they are unable to relate their own interests to the chaotically unfolding political and military situation in Sri Lanka.

Only the demonstration of military strength by the Tigers can bring clarity to the situation, for the international community to correctly relate their interests, and assertively engage."

This affirms that the Tigers are playing up to the fears of the international community. Here the Tigers are brazenly saying that they will escalate violence to drag in the international community to engage actively on their behalf.

At this juncture the Tigers need the international community to step in to save them from total defeat at the hands of the Security Forces. They are desperate.

They have no other routes of escape. They find the international community "vacillating". They find the military situation unfolding "chaotically" (from their point of view) against them.

Their current thinking is to "demonstrate their military strength" not to win militarily in the battlefield (they know they can't win) but to attack civilian targets, hoping that the international community would "assertively engage" on their behalf. This is how they plan to "clarify" the situation to the international community.

This place the burden entirely on the international community. The Tigers are holding the gun to the heads of Sri Lankan civilians to blackmail the international community.

The only way they can intensify violence is by terrorizing unarmed civilians in urban areas. In other words, their motive in escalating violence is to provoke the international community to intervene.

Despite this declaration to violate all known canons of humanitarian norms, it can be predicted that the human rights watchers, diplomats, NGOs, the UNP opposition and the pro-UNP media will blame the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) for the intensified violence. They will play down the terror attacks on non-combatant civilians and divert attention to the GOSL for abrogating the CFA that never ended violence.

When the transparent Tiger tactic is to manipulate the international community through terror attacks on civilians why should the international community blame the GOSL? The Tigers are cynically treating the Western diplomats as their pliant agents who can be manipulated easily to serve their violent ends.

Their intention is to put ball in the court of the international community. Will they fall for the openly declared manipulations of the Tigers? Or will they stand by their professed principles of not negotiating with violent groups until they lay down their arms and renounce violence?

The international community cannot back away from this challenge. The brash and unacceptable statement of the Tigers makes it clear that the international community is issuing warnings to the wrong end. Blaming the Sri Lankan government for ending the defunct CFA will only exacerbate the situation by encouraging the Tigers to intensify violence.

The Tigers are cranking up their killing machine to drag in the international community, including India, to intervene on their behalf. The question is whether the international community will fall for the trap of the Tigers. The time has come for the international community to clarify its position instead of pussyfooting around with misguided missiles directed at the wrong end.

This statement of Tigers is also a challenge to Radhika Coomaraswamy and Jayantha Dhanapala, the pious pundits of R2P. They are now faced with a declaration from the Tigers stating that they will escalate violence solely to get the international community to intervene on their behalf. Since the R2P is intended to defuse humanitarian crises arising from the escalation of violence will Radhika Coomaraswamy and Jayantha Dhanapala head this way, leading the R2P forces, to save the victims of Tiger violence?

But before bringing in the R2P forces, they will have to first examine closely the consequences of any foreign intervention on Sri Lankan soil. It's well and good for them to pontificate at ICES fora about the neo-colonial strategies of sending the R2P forces. But have they worked out the consequences of sending these forces?

Have they thought about how they are going to get out once they come in? Do they expect the Sri Lankans to lie back and allow these foreign forces to walk all over them?

Besides, if they are to do their job on principles of protecting human rights the R2P forces will have to battle both sides. Since they are supposed to stand in the middle won't they be the target of firing from both sides? So will they come, equipped with body bags, to go home in plane loads unaccompanied by Coomaraswamy and Dhanapala?

There is a history of resistance to foreign forces invading this nation and have the Godmother and Godfather of R2P taken into consideration this factor? Perhaps, they have forgotten that it was the Sri Lankan army that supplied the weapons to the Tigers to get rid of the Indian R2P that came in the guise of IPKF.

What is more, how long will "Maj-Gen" Dhanapala and his R2P forces last if they are to face the sniping of the combined forces of the JVP and JHU, eh?

Dhanapala must confine himself to Pugwash instead dishing out this hogwash to the Sri Lankans who have had a gutful of ill-digested solutions (like his P-TOMS) that are doomed to fail. There is also a diplomatic mafia in the Foreign Office who is over-awed by the Western lobbies. Perhaps, they are thinking of finding some employment in the West in their retirement. It is a pity that even some of the best and experienced talents tend to surrender to the Western lobbies.

Somebody must tell them that the winds of change are blowing to remove the cobwebs clogging their outdated thinking. It is time they settled down to serve the national interests and not the interests of the foreign interventionists, however powerful they may be.

Asian Tribune