Jobs rebound dampens QE3 prospects -Fed officials
(Reuters) - The pick-up in jobs has caught the eye of two top Federal
Reserve officials who said on Wednesday that continued improvement in
the beleaguered labor market dampens prospects for more economic
stimulus measures from the central bank.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President
Jeffrey Lacker pointed to better-than-expected data in recent months
that show the US unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, a still-high
level that casts intrigue on the Fed's next move to boost the economy,
if any.
The stronger labor market has investors buzzing over whether the Fed
will ultimately decide to launch a third round of so-called quantitative
easing, or QE3, through more asset purchases.
The central bank may yet need to buy more bonds to bolster the weak
recovery, but the jobs data make it a "close call," Williams told
reporters after a speech in San Ramon, California.
Further Fed stimulus "is not a slam dunk in the sense that if the
economy really slowed or inflation came down a lot - then, I think, the
case for more stimulus is much stronger, much more obvious," he said.
Lacker, while noting that unexpected developments could always
warrant further stimulus, said: "I don't see those prospects as very
likely right now at all.
"If we keep data like we've been getting, I don't see a rationale for
further easing at this point at all," Lacker said on CNN television,
after being asked about a third round of quantitative easing.
Williams and Lacker are on opposite sides of an internal Fed debate
over how best to nurture an economic recovery from the worst recession
in decades. The Fed has kept rates near zero for more than three years
and bought $2.3 trillion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to
push borrowing costs down further.
While Williams backed a Fed decision on January 25 to state that the
central bank expected to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" through
at least late 2014 - a move defended by Chairman Ben Bernanke and the
powerful core of policymakers - Lacker was the lone dissenter among
those with votes this year on the policy-setting committee.
Lacker, among the minority of "hawks" who worry more about inflation
getting out of hand than the high jobless rate, said rates will need to
rise before then and said the positive data in part prompted his
dissent.
The economy "is picking up steam right now," Lacker said.
Three other Fed policymakers - James Bullard of St. Louis, Charles
Plosser of Philadelphia and Richard Fisher of Dallas, all of whom do not
have votes this year - have also publicly stated their opposition to the
2014 language in the statement.
While unemployment has dipped, inflation is running below the Fed's
2-percent target, possibly paving the way for more easy monetary policy.
Williams, on the "dovish" end of the policy spectrum, said he sees
the U.S. economy growing at just over 2 percent this year - enough to
chip away at high unemployment, however slowly. "That to me is not a
satisfactory outcome," he said, but given the recent strength in labor
markets, "you are kind of in the close-call space with my forecast."
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