Japan's tsunami, three years on

Last year, exactly on the second anniversary of the great earthquake and tsunami faced by Japan on March 11, 2011, I had the rare opportunity of touring the areas most affected by the tsunami and speaking to the very people who survived to tell the tale. Many of them had lost all their family members and their belongings.

It was a highly emotional few days for me, mainly because I too was affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. It was an instantaneous bond that resonates to this day, as Japan and Sri Lanka face the challenge of recovery following the tsunamis.

Last week, Japan marked three years since the tragedy. Millions of Japanese observed a moment of silence at 2.46 p.m. on March 11, lighting candles and pausing to reflect on the third anniversary of the tsunami disaster. In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Emperor Akihito were present at a memorial service to mourn the victims including 2,636 people who remain unaccounted for. Most of the victims came from the Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures along the east coast.

Incidentally, this year we will be marking the 10th anniversary of the Indian Ocean tsunami which killed 250,000 people in 11 countries, including 40,000 in Sri Lanka.

Of course, the 3-11 incident in Japan was not only a tsunami - the deadly East Japan earthquake and tsunami that ravaged its northeast coast of Japan sparked the world's biggest nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986. The double disaster - a 9.0 magnitude earthquake that unleashed a 10-metre-high tsunami - swept away entire towns and villages taking the lives of nearly 16,000 people. Nearly one million houses and other buildings were destroyed.

Meltdowns

It also devastated the Fukushima nuclear plant north of Tokyo, which went through reactor meltdowns and explosions that spewed radioactive material, forcing more than 150,000 people from their homes. Entry to the power plant area is still restricted. The plant has stabilised substantially, but is still plagued by frequent leaks of radioactive water and other mishaps. The leaks are hampering the plant's decommissioning, which is expected to take about 40 years.

The Japanese government last year expanded its reconstruction budget to 25 trillion yen from 19 trillion yen.

However, progress has been slow amid a shortage of skilled workers and materials. (If you watch NHK World, such progress is detailed in a program titled March to Recovery, which alludes to the month in which the disaster occurred). Nearly 267,000 people still remain in temporary housing, while others have found shelter in new cities or with relatives. The tsunami made one thing clear: regardless of whether a country is developed or developing, a natural disaster such as a tsunami can have a devastating, long-lasting effect that takes years, if not decades, to address. For example, a just-concluded study has revealed that if a 9.0 earthquake were to strike along California's sparsely populated North Coast, it would have a catastrophic ripple effect. A giant tsunami created by the quake would wash away coastal towns, destroy U.S. 101 trunk road and cause US$ 70 billion in damage over a large swath of the Pacific coast. More than 100 bridges would be lost, power lines toppled and coastal towns isolated. Residents would have as few as 15 minutes notice to flee to higher ground, and as many as 10,000 would perish.

Japan, itself no stranger to tsunamis (the very word is Japanese for harbour wave) is taking several measures to avert a future disaster. Three years after the massive tsunami that ravaged north-eastern Japan, the government is building the biggest anti-tsunami barriers ever.

Alternatives

The vast network of supersized sea walls, described by some as “the Great Wall of Japan,” is already underway and would stretch 350 Km and cost nearly $8 billion.

The wall is designed to protect places such as the small port city of Kesennuma in Miyagi prefecture. With its dramatic hills, white fishing boats and seafood market, Kesennuma has a pleasant nautical feel.

However, Opponents say the walls - financed by the national government – would saddle struggling local governments with crushing maintenance costs. They say less drastic alternatives, such as moving communities to high ground or developing better evacuation/awareness techniques, have not been given enough attention.

Those are very important measures in a tsunami. Sri Lanka has made vast strides in that direction, with a fully functional network of warning signal towers and signposted evacuation pathways. Sri Lanka is also part of an Indian Ocean wide tsunami sensing network.

Moreover, the mobile networks are now equipped to deliver emergency texts to all 20 million handsets in use, in addition to updates on national radio and TV.

Unfortunately, these measures can only be put into action when we know that a tsunami is likely to happen, following a major earthquake.

There is still no scientifically proven method to predict earthquakes in advance, which may give the authorities even more time to prepare emergency measures. There should be greater North-South cooperation to study tsunamis and on preparatory actions. In the meantime, there are some steps that the authorities can take. Installing ultra-sensitive tsunami sensors on the deep ocean floor would provide better information on a tsunami's size in as little as five minutes. It now takes about half an hour. Those 25 minutes could mean a difference of thousands of lives of saved. Scientists around the world are also studying tsunamis in greater detail using actual data and model tsunamis created in laboratories - why and how they are formed, how their potency could be reduced, how they can be predicted with even a small margin of accuracy etc. Ten years ago, 90 percent of Sri Lankans didn't even know what a tsunami was. Today, even kindergarten kids do.

The word is now so entrenched in general usage that it is used in other contexts as well such as “I faced a tsunami of emotions”. But for those who really faced a tsunami of emotions in Sri Lanka and Japan 210 and three years ago respectively, the long wait for closure will be truly agonising.