Victims of ‘survivorship bias’
 Another highly successful International Book Fair concluded on
Tuesday at the BMICH. The much-awaited event by bookworms, budding and
veteran authors and bibliophiles took on a carnival atmosphere as usual
with eateries and ice cream vendors. Children and adults flocked to the
BMICH to visit the 400-odd stalls, some big and some small.
The stalls selling stationery, schools text books and religious books
were full of prospective buyers. Some people bought as many books as
they could carry. Others bought a few or nothing. But all of them served
a purpose i.e. they all loved books that were smelling of fresh ink and
carried beautiful covers or jackets. However, this is only one part of
the story.
There were a few stalls that did not attract a sufficient number of
visitors. Some of them were small-time publishers and others were author
publishers. Despite low sales, some authors never give up writing and
publishing books. Occasionally we meet an author who writes a book
knowing very well that he cannot sell it. However, he distributes the
copies of his book gratis to his family members, relatives and friends.
Advertising
Most authors and publishers try to market their books through many
ways. As advertising is a costly business, they resort to less expensive
methods of getting publicity mainly through newspapers. If they get hold
of a reviewer, the publicity can be more effective. Unlike in developed
countries, we do not have professional book reviewers. Therefore, most
authors approach journalists seeking to get a review done. However,
practising journalists may not find the time to read and review all the
books they receive.
Once a budding author visited the graveyard (metaphorically of
course) of a failed author. To his astonishment he found that the books
he had written were unintelligible. Although he was a well-known dancer,
he could not wield the language. The budding author learnt his first
lesson that day i.e. what you write must be intelligible. If readers do
not understand what you write, they will not buy your books.
 It is useful to have a basic degree or even postgraduate
qualifications to be a writer. However, writing is such a queer business
that even some graduates do not make the mark. For that matter,
non-graduates such as Martin Wickremasinghe made his mark as an author.
In fact, his books have been recommended for higher examinations.
Invisible
The burial ground houses 10,000 times more authors than one could
find among the living.
This makes the cemetery invisible to outsiders. If the dead authors
can speak, they will tell us that they had overestimated their chances
of succeeding. Unwittingly, as psychologists say, they are victims of
“Survivorship Bias.” Behind every such failed author you will find 100
other authors whose books will never sell.
Moreover there are another 100 authors who could not find publishers
for their books. There are yet another 100 authors whose manuscripts
gather dust. What is strange is that everyone of them wanted to be
authors.
Graveyard
The media spotlight is always on successful authors winning awards
locally and internationally. Unfortunately, the media is not interested
in digging around in the graveyard of the failed authors. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average Index highlights out-and-out survivors in business.
Similarly, “How to write” books focus on successful authors. But the
unsuccessful authors do not write such how to do books or conduct
courses in writing.
“Survivorship Bias” simply means that people tend to overestimate
their skills and chances of success. We can guard against such a
tendency by visiting the graveyards of failed authors. It may be a sad
walk, but it would clear our mind of cobwebs. |
