Are we prepared to face the challenge?

Ageing population in Sri Lanka:

by Indeewara Thilakarathne

As Sri Lanka experiencing a major demographic shift in the age pyramid from younger population to older, the proportion of the population over 60 years has dramatically increased from 5.3 in 1953 to 10.8% in 2003, making it the fastest ageing population among the developing nations.

It has been forecasted that the aging population will further rise to one quarter of Sri Lanka's population by 2030. It is apparent that this aging population will put an added strain on Sri Lankan economy which is already being affected by terrorism and the declining tourist arrivals as tourism being one of the principle sources of foreign exchange.

Time is ripe for the policy makers to take this issue into consideration given the profound impact that this shift of paradigm would make on the economy and the society at large.

Regional-wise the aging population over 60 -70 is almost double compared to other countries in South East Asia in 2001 and 2030. In 2001, one person among ten is over 60 which is 1 in 21 and 13 people in Afghanistan and India.

According to the forecast, by 2030 Sri Lanka will expect to have 22 per cent of population age over 60 or 1 in 5 over 60. However, other countries in the region are expected to have somewhat lower rate, 1 in 18 in Afghanistan and 1 in 7 in India. The situation is further compounded by the unprecedented increase in middle age in Sri Lanka, from 26.9 in 2000 to 39.2 in 2030.

The shift of paradigm

Observing the demographic changes that took place since the first census conducted in 1871 and the last in 2001, there is a shift of paradigm from young population, a steady rise before 1950 up to 1971 with the increase in fertility rate and due to the rapid decline of infant mortality (IMR) and maternal mortality rates (MMR), to the older population over 60-70.

Since 1990›s a major shift of age structure is observed virtually changing the age pyramid. Decrease in fertility rate and increase life expectancy has contributed to this demographic transition. However, this will pose major economic and social challenges as it occurred against the slow economic growth.

Although the traditional Sri Lankan family cares for elders, this trend is changing with a large number of females who migrate seeking better employment abroad and a large number of rural youth migrating to cities in search of job opportunities. According to Department of Social Service, number of homes for the elders has increased from 68 in 1987 to 162 in 2003. This figure has excluded the paying homes for the elders set up in some urban areas.

Socio-economic implications

The economic implications of aging population will extend to the areas of social security schemes such as pension, ETF, EPF to the health sector where considerable expenditure will incur from special drugs for elders and from the improvement of infrastructure to cater to their specific requirements.

Against the rising inflation, the EPF, ETF or a lump sum received at retirement is insufficient to cover day-to-day expenditure on medicine. They also can not depend on interest rates as interest rates are low. This situation would further exacerbate given the impact the government pension schemes make on the Gross Domestic Production (GDP). Expenditure on pension per GDP has risen from 2.4 % in 1994 to 4.2 % in 2002.

In the health sector, facilities to treat chronic illness such as heart disease, kidney failures, censer would have to be increased and it is expected that sanitariums for bed-ridden elders and the government will have to expend a large amount of money on expensive drugs for the elders and to treat chronic diseases and for expanding theatre and dialysis facilities for patients suffering from kidney failures.

The age dependency ratio which indicates a number of persons depend on the work force will also expect to rise further burdening on the economy. According to Department of Census and Statistics, the aged dependency ratio has increased from 9.4 per cent in 1946 to 15.4 per cent in 2001 and expects to increase to 41 per cent in 2041. Six workers support one aged in 2001 will rise to two workers supporting one aged by 2041.

This natural crisis in demographic transition would further deepen if policy decision would not be taken in vital sectors of the economy and in the health sector given the severe economic strain brought about by the protracted war and growing number of Internally Displaced Persons and dime prospects of short term recovery in tourism sector.

[email protected]