Lack of resources and competent people, a setback:

Storms in South 'unexpected' - Met Dept chief

By Ranil WIJAYAPALA

The stormy winds that hit Matara and Galle districts in the Southern Province destroying properties, claiming many lives and causing problems to fishermen raised concerns on weather forecasts by the Meteorological Department.

Disaster Management Minister Mahinda Amaraweera called for a report from the Meteorological Department to ascertain whether there was any lapse on the part of the Met Department.

The Sunday Observer interviewed the Director General Meteorological Department, G.B. Samarasinghe. He said the gale in the South was an unexpected situation which cannot be forecast using the resources at the Met Department while emphasising the fact that the Department had done its best to avert such a situation.

Excerpts of the interview with Meteorological Department Chief G.B. Samarasinghe.

Q: What exactly happened on November 25 and what were the Met Department forecast?

A: We have forecast the best based on scientific evidence. At that time there was a low pressure area near Sri Lanka. It was not a depression but a low pressure area that prevailed at that time.

Such a weather could prevail at that time a low pressure area. We expected rain and wind in the sea. We did not expect winds. The maximum wind speed is 20 to 30 KMPH under low pressure. Under depression speed is 30 to 40 KMPH.

There was a squall line. A squall line is one where you get rains with wind. A narrow cloud can make it windy.

Q: What went wrong with the forecast?

A: The forecast we made was not for severe weather conditions.

Q: Do you mean that the weather in the South was unexpected?

A: Those are unexpected situations. If you compare it with a depression with a cyclonic storm it spans around 100 to 200 kilo metres covering the entire land mass.

The adverse weather condition prevailed in a small area due to this squall line which cannot be predicted.

Q: The Meteorological Department can educate people on changes that could take place under such circumstances.

A: We cannot forecast strong winds and every isolated incident. Due to climate changes extreme situations are on the rise.

We have not experienced droughts for a long time.

Lightning and strong winds take place frequently due to climate changes.

Q: There are reports that some Indian authorities have also issued warnings to fishermen about rough weather conditions that could affect Sri Lanka. Was the Met Department aware of such warnings and why did if fail to warn fishermen?

A: Indian fishermen were warned on November 25. That was created by one particular media that was Disaster Management person but not the Meteorological Authority. He said Sri Lanka could expect shower. This has happened for the first time in Sri Lanka. India said the low pressure was upgraded into a depression. They said the low pressure was heading towards their direction. They said the bad weather would affect Sri Lanka. People say that while India warned its people we did nothing. That is totally wrong.

Q: What time was Sri Lanka affected?

A: Strong windy condition prevailed from 8.30 to 10 am on November 25. In Matara the highest wind was reported around 9.10 am and in Deniyaya 9.30 am. From 8.30 to 10 am winds situation affected Matara and Galle districts.

Q: The most affected were the fishermen. More than 30 fishermen went missing due to the windyweather. What sort of arrangements the Met Department is having to warn fishermen about such bad weather conditions?

A: Normally we issue three forecast a day. In the morning and noon we forecast for fishermen. We forecast that the normal condition would not prevail in the sea but we did not mention it as a severe condition. We did not tell them not to go fishing.

The Fisheries Department informs fishermen. On November 23, 24 the Department issued a warning around 4 pm. Rough seas were forecast. Winds around 70 to 80 KMPH were expected we did not anticipate 60 KMPH.

Q: The Disaster Management Minister has called for a report on the situation on November 25. You have already submitted that report to the Minister. What were your findings?

A: We explained the situation that was prevalent in the country at that time. We issued a bad weather warning on 23 and 24 evening. And on the 25th morning we forecast rough seas.

On the 24 the Department issued a warning, that due to low level disturbances rain or thunder shower were expected in North Eastern, North Central, Eastern Uva and Southern provinces and heavy rain in certain places.

On the 24th evening we said that there will be occasional and thunder showers in the deep and shallow sea areas of the North and South and sea round the island will be rough. We did not say that there will be strong winds on the 24 evening.

On the 25th morning at 5.30 a.m. we said that winds from the North East monsoon will blow at a speed between 20 to 30 KMPH. In the sea it will be 40 to 50 KMPH. But the speed recorded that day was about 65 KMPH. It was not to windy for fishermen. It was the small boats which were affected.

Q: Could you have avoided such situations?

A: If we had Doppler Weather Radar we could have alerted people one hour before the catestrophy struck. We will have this facility in Sri Lanka by March next year.

Q: That means the Meteorological Department needs Doppler Weather Radar for short period forecast?

A: For a short weather phenomena a weather radar is very important. In addition to that we need to build capacity to face such situations. At present what we do is to have global weather output and it is regionalised to the Asian Region. For that we have already launched a project based on the WRF model. We are using that model. The experimental weather forecast for the next three days is given in the web. We should go beyond the experimental basis to forecast. We can forecast for seven days if we have models.

In other countries they give seven day forecast. We also can give seven day forecast. If we forecast three hours ahead it could be accurate.

Q: Are you accepting that there was a failure on the part of the Department?

A: It is hard to answer that question. I can't say that it was negligence on our part. We did our best.

Q: Don't you think you could have done better?

A: One website said they informed the Sri Lanka Met authorities seven days before the disaster occurred. There were reports that there would be a cyclone in Sri Lanka but we said there is nothing like that. The web is inundated with information.

Q: What is the mechanism to forecast a similar situation that took place last week?

A: Our weather forecast are released to the media and the Disaster Management Centre. If it is affecting certain districts it goes to the District Secretaries. We always have a checklist when it comes to bad weather warnings. But dissemination of weather forecast beyond certain level is not within our purview. It is the responsibility of the Disaster Management Centre. The other mode of dissemination is through the electronic and print media.

Q: There are instances where adverse weather forecasts confuse people. What are your comments?

A: There are such incidents. Sometime back in Ahangama, Weligama and Polonnaruwa the Police told people to take precautions. At a recent media briefing I called upon people to have confidence in the Met Department.

The disaster that occurred last week was a great loss to the country. Actually it was the weather forecasting Division which should be responsible but as the Director General of the Met Department I have to take that responsibility.

Q: Have you taken steps to make accurate forecast?

A: If there is lack of coordination we will take steps to improve it.

Now we have only one duty forecaster at a time. One person cannot handle all the things. It is a meteorologist who had to analyse the data, look into the charts and forecast. It has to be done after processing and analysing the data that is a very delicate thing. Certain countries have different sections for cloud picture analysis, Doppler radar, optional data and upper data radar. So all assimilated comes to the chief forecaster or somebody and he make the forecast.

But here at the Met Department we don't have people to deploy for different sections. One person has to do all these things. But normally we deploy two people in such situation. The forecaster has to be vigilant. There is a dearth of staff. Vacancies need to be filled.

Q: Do you have competent people to handle the job?

A: We need additional hands when foreign funded projects are launched.

Q: What will be the weather changes this month?

A: We are in the inter monsoon period. This is the time we get rains in the North and the East and in the Uva. This is the period where we get cyclones. Cyclones occur in November and December. The cyclone that affected Sri Lanka occure in December.

Q: Why can't the Department website be accessed easily?

A: I agree with it. It has not been updated since last October because the server is maintained by Information Communication Agency of Sri Lanka under new project