Deeper jobs recession ahead, ILO warns of more social unrest

In a grim analysis issued on the eve of the G20 leaders summit, the ILO says the global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that will further delay the global economic recovery and may ignite more social unrest in scores of countries.

“We have reached the moment of truth. We have a brief window of opportunity to avoid a major double-dip in employment,” said Raymond Torres, Director of the ILO International Institute for Labour Studies which issued the report.

The new World of Work Report 2011 ‘Making markets work for jobs’ says a stalled global economic recovery has begun to dramatically affect labour markets. On current trends, it will take at least five years to return employment in advanced economies to pre-crisis levels, one year later than projected in last year’s report.

Noting that the current labour market is already within the confines of the usual six-month lag between an economic slowdown and its impact on employment, the report indicates that 80 million jobs need to be created over the next two years to return to pre-crisis employment rates. However, the recent slowdown in growth suggests that the world economy is likely to create only half of the jobs needed.

The report also features a new ‘social unrest’ index that shows levels of discontent over the lack of jobs and anger over perceptions that the burden of the crisis is not being shared fairly.

It notes that in over 45 of the 119 countries examined, the risk of social unrest is rising. This is especially the case in advanced economies, notably the EU, the Arab region and to a lesser extent Asia. By contrast, there is a stagnant or lower risk of social unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.